India's e-commerce market to touch $250 bn by 2030 as AI reshapes retail

Shiprocket-Deloitte report says personalised recommendations, smarter fulfilment and rising digital adoption in smaller cities and rural India will fuel the next phase of growth

India's e-commerce market is projected to nearly triple to about $250 billion by 2030 from roughly $90 billion in 2025, as artificial intelligence reshapes how consumers discover, buy and receive goods online, according to a report by logistics platform Shiprocket and consulting firm Deloitte. The study says AI-powered product discovery, personalised checkout and smarter fulfilment are expected to drive the next phase of growth in the country's online retail market.

 

The report also highlights the growing importance of Bharat in India's digital commerce journey. It says businesses will need to build more inclusive, vernacular-first commerce experiences. This is because 488 million rural internet users account for 55 per cent of India's active internet population, 98 per cent of internet users consume content in Indic languages, and vernacular voice queries are growing 156 per cent faster than English. The report also notes that tier-II and tier-III cities already account for over 60 per cent of India's online shoppers, reflecting the growing contribution of Bharat to the country's digital economy.

 

"India's e-commerce landscape is entering its next phase of growth, and technology will play a central role in shaping that journey. Consumers today expect faster, more personalised and more convenient shopping experiences," said Saahil Goel, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Shiprocket. "For businesses, this means investing in AI, strengthening fulfilment capabilities, and building experiences that cater to customers across both metro and emerging markets. The report outlines the trends that we believe will define the sector over the coming years."

 

The report identifies three trends that it says will shape the future of Indian commerce. It says advances in artificial intelligence, including generative AI, will make online shopping more personalised through intelligent recommendations, conversational interfaces and visual search. It also says AI-powered recommendations, predictive decision-making and customer engagement tools will help brands improve conversion rates, customer retention and average order values. Finally, the report points to growing internet penetration, better rural connectivity and rising consumption of content in Indian languages as factors that will expand the market for digital commerce across the country.

 

The report also notes that 90 per cent of Indian consumers believe generative AI has improved their online shopping experience, highlighting the growing acceptance of AI-led commerce experiences.

 

The report also presents examples of how AI is improving business outcomes across the commerce value chain. Recognised returning customers convert at 2.1 times the rate of new-to-ecosystem users. Brands with repeat purchase rates above 25 per cent post profit margins 3.4 times higher than those below 15 per cent.

 

Dr Anand Ramanathan, Partner and Consumer Industry Leader, Deloitte India, said: "As India charts its path toward becoming one of the world's largest and most dynamic commerce markets, the winners will not simply be those who adopt AI, but those who learn how to apply it with precision, speed, and discipline. The opportunity is large. The next phase will belong to those who act decisively."

 

The report combines industry research, market trends and Shiprocket's commerce insights to examine how AI is reshaping product discovery, customer engagement, fulfilment and commerce experiences across India. It also explores the growing importance of Bharat, vernacular commerce and AI-enabled personalisation in shaping the future of the country's e-commerce ecosystem.