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Ecomony Indicators

  • growth, budget, realistic,

    Economy has clearly slowed down, future growth depends on normal monsoon, moderate inflation and pick up in global economy

    Source: Central Statistical Organisation, CRISIL Research

  • fiscal arithmetic,

    A slowing economy is the main reason for rising deficit as expenditure growth has remained stagnant

    Source: BUdhet document, CRISIL Research

  • plan expenditure

    Part of the reason for the slowdown was a sharp fall in plan expenditure. FM has tried to correct this by budget for higher expenditure in FY14

    Source: Budget documents, GoI, Jefferies

  • infrastructure investment

    In order to push growth, govt has budgeted for higher investment in infrastructure sector, which it hopes will have a trickle down effect on the economy

    Budget documents, CRISIL Research

  • expenditure bias

    Due to its higher commitment in revenue expenditure there is little room left for asset creation

    Source: Ministry of Finance, Kotak Institutional Equities

  • capital expenditure

    Share of capital expenditure which would have created productive asset has been on a decline

    Source: Ministry of Finance, Kotak Institutional Equities

  • redemptions

    To finance its deficit government has been on a borrowing spree. However, its only a matter of year before redemptions start growing

    Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

  • disinvestment

    In the recent budget, FM has been blamed for being liberal in revenue estimates and conservative in expenditure

    Source: Budget documents, GoI, Jefferies

  • disinvestment

    Disinvestment figure has been budgeted to an all time high despite a poor track record

    Budget documents, CRISIL Research

  • subsidies

    Subsidies have been assumed to fall, though it has done so only once in the last decade