The economics of survival in an era of worsening climate extremes

I was in Europe in late June for meetings, and the heat was on. Even for an Indian accustomed to high temperatures, the intensity of the sun was searing. It was also evident that these countries are not designed for heat, from buildings to devices for temperature control. As I made my way home, the monsoon was crashing across India. Mumbai, the financial capital, was brought to its knees with floodwaters taking over roads and entering homes. Cloudbursts in the Himalayas and Western Ghats were bringing with them landslides and loss of property. Then there was news of damage to roads and bridges, some of which were built only recently. The investment was clearly unmindful of the climate extremes we now face. And all this has unfolded in a matter of one week. 

So, if anyone still questions the grip of climate change, they are living in denial and derangement. This is what models predicted would happen as temperatures spiralled and spiked weather. It is time we acknowledged that we are doing far too little to stem this rot affecting our planet. It is time we got our act together. Sadly, we are going in reverse — not just in action but in the narrative that would make the world a different place. 

The fact is that green technology is now making inroads into countries not for climate mitigation but because it makes more energy and economic sense. The leap to solar energy, without going down the fossil-fuel route, works when the cost of panels and batteries is cheaper than installing and building a power grid, which also takes time. Countries are taking decisions based on their domestic priorities and the co-benefit, or collateral advantage, is reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. 

Take Delhi’s recent policy to move the needle on the electrification of its vehicle fleet. It is bold and a potential game changer. The policy provides a mandate for switchover to electric two- and three-wheelers as well as light commercial vehicles. Under it, by January 2027, only electric three-wheelers — used extensively as paratransit in the city — and light commercial vehicles will be allowed to be registered. By April 2028, only electric two-wheelers will be allowed registration. It combines this with fiscal incentives for new purchase and a robust scrapping policy, so that old vehicles can be turned new, but electric. 

The objective of the policy is to stem air pollution in the city; this is why there is a focus on two-wheelers. The city registers, each day, some 1,000 new two-wheelers, which then contribute to its pollution load because of their sheer numbers. Similarly, the paratransit is a critical system to connect to public transport. The city is moving towards a green bus fleet and with its extensive subway system, this could be the way to its green transport future. 

Delhi’s electric-vehicle (EV) 2026 policy has limited fiscal incentives for personal vehicles, as it should, because these vehicles occupy disproportionate road space and congestion, which in turn adds to pollution. This EV transition is not designed for climate-change mitigation, but if it works, it will reduce Delhi’s greenhouse-gas emission. This is also where cities can leapfrog because of the domestic imperative for cleaner air, and steer the world towards a more climate-secure future. 

But, and there is a “but”, all this will require obsessive follow-through — to get the scrapping of vehicles done so that fleet transformation happens; to get charging infrastructure organised so that public vehicles have reliable access; and then of course, to ensure that all this adds up to making mass transit work. The only way to get people out of personal vehicles is to make the system so reliable, convenient and affordable, that it just makes more sense. Nobody wants to be stuck in traffic and breathe foul air — this is a change we all want. It is also clear that the more we invest in the upgraded public-transport network, the better it will be for securing livelihoods. It also improves the affordability of housing as people can live where land is cheaper and commute to centres of employment. It needs imagination in planning, implementation at scale and urgency in action.

This, then, is the real climate-change challenge: Living in a world where weather is turning against us. We need solutions that will accelerate transitions in our world. The economic-growth model that has brought us to the brink of a climate catastrophe is one in which investment is needed to first build and then repair and mitigate the environmental costs of growth. We have to invent, and not reinvent, growth. This is the only way to secure the fight against climate change.

 

The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environment; sunita@cseindia.org, X: @sunitanar