Water disputes back in spotlight amid El Niño and political shifts

Change of guard in some states and evolving El Niño dynamics are triggering fresh actions on raging water-sharing disputes in several states, Hemant Kumar Rout and Shine Jacob report

With a strengthening El Niño threatening bountiful monsoon and newly elected chief ministers looking to score political points, the politics of inter-state river water sharing has once again taken the centre stage. 

From Odisha to Chhattisgarh, Karnataka to Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra to Gujarat, states are again witnessing fresh action on long-running water disputes. 

While in Karnataka, the slogan “Go Back Vijay” is trending over the proposed visit of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay, his counterpart D K Shivakumar has appealed to the actor-turned-politician to postpone the visit, citing the raging row over the water release order of the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA). At the same time, in the East, Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, seems to be keen on finding a solution to the long-standing Mahanadi water dispute with neighbouring Chhattisgarh. 

According to industry exp­erts, the possible dip in rainfall due to El Niño may be one of the reasons such water disputes are cropping up, again. 

A study by IPE Global shows that compound heat-drought events have increased 19-fold over the past decade, and El Niño conditions systematically suppress southwest monsoon rainfall by 10–20 per cent below the long-term average across peninsular and central India—precisely the catchments feeding the Cauvery, Krishna, and Godavari. 

“In India, every chief minister wants to show voters only how much water they have taken from another state. Hence, their visions are only for five years. The major issue is that the ownership of water is split into three parts between the Centre, the state, and the local bodies. Hence, no politician can now say that they can preserve rainwater, or manage river water properly,” Magsaysay Award-winning water conservationist Rajendra Singh, who is also known as the ‘Waterman of India,’ told Business Standard. 

Echoing this view, Abinash Mohanty, Global Sector Head, Climate Change Sustainability at IPE Global, said farmers are expected to feel the heat this season, as they are the most climate-vulnerable, a reason why politicians across the states are now highlighting water issues. “When river flows fall by 25–40 per cent in El Niño years, the consequences cascade immediately: kharif sowing delays, groundwater overdraft accelerates, and MSME agri-processing supply chain disruption worth an estimated ₹60,000–80,000 crore in annual agricultural losses nationally,” Mohanty said. 

“The farmer is the first to absorb the shock, and the last to receive compensation. That asymmetry is what our climate vulnerability work consistently surfaces — and what policymakers must urgently correct,” he added. 

In early July, a five-decade-old dispute over the share of costs for the construction of the Sardar Sarovar Project on the Narmada River was also amicably resolved between Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, with Union Minister Amit Shah acting as a truce-maker. 

Water wars & truce efforts 

Take the case of Odisha. For the first time in a decade, the state is showing willingness to resolve the Mahanadi dispute, a sign of a policy shift due to a change of guard as well. 

“Both states will make their submissions before the technical committee headed by the Chairman of the Central Water Commission (CWC). After assessments, the panel will submit its report to the Mahanadi Water Disputes Tribunal (MWDT) within three months with a solution to benefit the two states,” Majhi said last month. Echoing similar optimism, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai said sustained efforts are being made to resolve the dispute since the BJP came to power in both states. This comes when July also witnessed the extension of the tenure of the two oldest water dispute tribunals — the 40-year-old Ravi and Beas, and the 22-year-old Krishna water disputes tribunals — for one more year, till August 5, 2027, and July 31, 2027, respectively, as both of them have failed to arrive at a solution despite repeated extensions. 

In the South, water is more of an emotion when it comes to the Cauvery. The first to step on the gas was Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Vijay. On June 19, he moved a resolution in the State Assembly against Karnataka’s move to construct a dam across the Cauvery at Mekedatu. The resolution urged the Centre to not give technical, environme­ntal clearance for the project. 

However, on July 27, it again captured public attention with Union Minister of State for Jal Shakti Raj Bhushan Choudhary saying the judgment of the Supreme Court in February 2018 does not direct that Karnataka should obtain the consent of the lower riparian states (Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala) before constructing a structure across the Cauvery. 

On July 28, Vijay said in a letter to the Prime Minister that Choudhary’s statement was made without referring to the settled law and legal principles on inter-State water issues. He sought the intervention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ensure that no statutory or administrative approval is granted to the Mekedatu project unless it is demonstrably consistent with the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal (CWDT) Award and the judgment of the Supreme Court. 

Vijay’s visit to Bengaluru faced opposition from several pro-Kannada organisations, which even called for a statewide bandh on August 13, asking the Karnataka government to oppose a ruling by the Cauvery Water Regulation Committee (CWRC) to release 3,500 cusecs of water per day to Tamil Nadu for 15 days, starting from July 29. 

“More than 18 districts in Tamil Nadu are dependent on Cauvery water. It is the lifeline for the state. Politics should not take away the rights of the people in riparian states,” said T Jayaraman, an environmentalist from the Cauvery Delta region. Singh added that a major reason for the rise in water disputes and water requirements is poor river management, with crop patterns changing too, as commercial crops like paddy and sugarcane are consuming more water. 

When each state and its politicians are trying to score points, farmers and the common man are expected to face the heat, with El Niño also playing spoilsport.