June CPI inflation fell to 2.1%, driven by a sharp drop in vegetable prices. A good monsoon should help keep food inflation contained in the coming months
However, not all food categories show easing. Prices of oils and fats rose over 17%, suggesting uneven trends that may require policy attention
The RBI frontloaded rate cuts earlier this year. With 100 bps already reduced, it will wait to assess their full impact before easing further
Surplus liquidity has pushed the call rate below the repo rate. With the CRR cut still playing out, the MPC may not want to expand accommodation just yet
Core inflation remains above 4%, and future projections don’t suggest a sharp drop. Monetary policy is forward-looking, not reactive to a single reading
At 5.5%, the repo rate aligns with the natural rate. Further cuts are unlikely unless inflation drops significantly. The onus now shifts to fiscal policy