BS EDIT: Second-order effects: RBI cannot ignore price pressures

By Business StandardPublished On Nov 22, 2024

Is India’s Economic Momentum Slowing?

Economists debate if India’s growth is losing steam. RBI’s latest report suggests pvt consumption is driving demand. Q2 GDP growth expected at 6.7%; Q3 at 7.6%

Inflation Pressures in Focus

CPI inflation rose to 6.2% in October, driven by food prices. Core inflation also increased to 3.8%. Worrying signs of high food prices spilling into wages

Why Food Inflation Matters

Ignoring food prices in policy is debated. High food costs impact wages, consumption, and demand close monitoring to prevent lasting effects

Balancing Inflation & Growth

Inflation affects consumption, profits, and capex. Controlling it is vital for sustainable growth, while premature rate cuts risk inflation broadening

Lessons from the Past

Early 2010s showed ignoring food prices fuels inflation. RBI must focus on anchoring expectations, with headline inflation as its binding target

What Lies Ahead?

Inflation may hit 4% by late FY26, enabling rate cuts next year. MPC must balance growth concerns with inflation control for stability