BS EDIT: Slowing growth: RBI’s cautious approach explained

By Business StandardPublished On Dec 9, 2024

Economy slows to 5.4%

India's Q2FY25 growth slowed to 5.4%, below RBI's 7% projection, with analysts linking it to the MPC's cautious stance on rate cuts

RBI holds repo rate steady

The MPC kept the policy rate at 6.5%, prioritising disinflation and price stability, with experts backing the decision against a knee-jerk rate cut

CRR cut by 50 bps

RBI cut the cash reserve ratio by 50 bps to ease liquidity stress, though other tools could address short-term liquidity needs effectively

Inflation trends

Inflation may fall to 4% by Q2FY26, allowing gradual rate cuts, though RBI sees limited scope due to a higher neutral rate

Growth projections remain optimistic

RBI cut FY25 growth forecast to 6.6%, expects 7%+ in coming quarters, though analysts warn projections may be overly optimistic

Balancing growth and stability

Policy-rate cuts may not ensure sustainable growth; the government must find alternative drivers, while managing the rupee's overvaluation carefully