BS EDIT: The right framework: Inflation-targeting alternatives

By Business StandardPublished On Sep 6, 2024

Inflation-targeting debate

The Economic Survey suggested targeting inflation excluding food, citing supply-induced rather than demand-driven price increases

Current framework

4% inflation target with a ±2 percentage point tolerance band

Decisions made by a six-member MPC, including three external members, enhancing transparency

Improvements over past systems

The current framework provides clearer market understanding and predictability, and reduces pressure on the RBI governor by involving a committee

Debate on nominal anchor

Excluding food prices may ignore persistently high food prices' effect on core inflation

Any shift in target requires RBI Act amendment

Potential risks

De-anchoring expectations, suggesting the system can't manage headline inflation

A focus on core inflation could affect real interest rates and impact savings and investment

Need for analytical evidence

Any change to the inflation-targeting framework must be supported by thorough research showing the new approach will serve better

Ongoing evaluation

Policies should evolve with changing economic realities. Constant debate and refinement are essential for adapting strategies