BS EDIT: Trade possibilities

By Business StandardPublished On Dec 18, 2025

A welcome surprise

November exports rose 19.4% year-on-year, the fastest growth in 41 months, even as global trade conditions remained adverse

US market boost

Exports to the US surged over 22%, helping narrow the trade deficit despite higher tariffs and unresolved trade frictions

Bigger picture remains weak

For April–November, exports grew just 2.6% while the merchandise trade deficit widened, pressuring the rupee

Cost of delay

A delayed US trade deal risks shifting demand for Indian goods to rival suppliers, with losses that may prove permanent

Capital flows at risk

Trade uncertainty has coincided with equity outflows of over $18 billion, weighing on India’s balance of payments

What markets want

A timely US trade deal, along with EU progress, could stabilise the rupee, revive capital flows, and support growth