The rupee has dropped over 5% this year and crossed 90/$. The decline must be viewed in the context of broader macro trends, not just psychological levels
India’s BoP turned to a $10.9 bn deficit in Q2 from an $18.6 bn surplus last year. With a wider trade gap, depreciation is an expected—and stabilising—adjustment
The RBI is avoiding heavy intervention, allowing the rupee to adjust naturally. In a BoP-deficit phase, such depreciation supports macroeconomic balance
A 50% US tariff is weighing on Indian exports. Some rerouting may mask the impact briefly, but a durable solution relies on a balanced India–US trade agreement
A weaker rupee cannot offset the tariff fully, but it improves export competitiveness elsewhere. RBI data shows real depreciation, offering exporters vital support
The rupee has appreciated in real terms against the yuan since the pandemic, making Chinese imports cheaper and risking a deeper trade deficit
With $688 bn in reserves, the RBI can ensure orderly markets. Near-term movement will hinge on India–US talks and FPI flows, but low inflation keeps risks contained