Why West Asia peace is hanging by a thread despite US-Iran ceasefire

Ahead of US-Iran talks in Islamabad, the ceasefire faces pressure from Israeli strikes in Lebanon, disputes over Iran's nuclear programme and tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz

The two-week pause in West Asia remains fragile even as the US and Iran are set to meet in Islamabad on Saturday for the first round of talks under a ceasefire arrangement. Brokered by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the agreement aimed to halt escalating hostilities, but it already faces pressure from continuing military tensions in the region.

 

The deal was intended to create space for diplomacy. However, developments over the past 24 hours — including Israeli strikes in Lebanon, disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme and tensions around shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — have put the agreement under strain.

 

 

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that American military ships and aircraft would remain positioned around Iran. He warned that Washington would resume military action if Tehran fails to comply with the agreement.

 

Israeli strikes in Lebanon threaten the truce

 

One of the biggest risks to the ceasefire comes from continued Israeli military action in Lebanon. Iran has warned that the strikes could undermine the agreement even before talks begin.

 

The White House has said the ceasefire applies only to hostilities between Washington and Tehran and does not cover Israel’s operations in Lebanon.

 

Israel has also backed the ceasefire deal but said it “does not include Lebanon”. Israel renewed strikes on Wednesday in the Tyre and Nabatieh areas in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese authorities, at least 182 people were killed, and hundreds were wounded in the attack. Israel said it carried out the largest coordinated strike on Lebanon since the war began on February 28.

 

Trump’s Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later also said that Lebanon was not included in the deal.

 

However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it could take action against “aggressors in the region” if attacks on Lebanon continue. It promised a “regret-inducing response” if strikes do not stop.

 

Iran blamed Israel for threatening the fragile ceasefire. It warned that continued Israeli attacks in Lebanon could collapse the agreement and increase tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Earlier reports had suggested that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli strikes. The US later said the waterway remained open and that there were no disruptions to shipping.

 

Dispute over Iran’s nuclear enrichment

 

Another major point of conflict is Iran’s nuclear programme. At the centre of the dispute is Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations, which includes its “undeniable right” to uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes.

 

In its framework for talks, Tehran said enrichment for civilian purposes must remain part of any agreement.

 

However, the White House has rejected this demand, calling it “non-negotiable”. It argued that restricting Iran’s nuclear programme is essential for any long-term settlement.

 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt termed this proposal by Iran as “fundamentally unserious, unacceptable, and completely discarded”. She added that Trump’s “red lines on uranium enrichment” remain unchanged.

 

Trump also said on Wednesday that Tehran would not be allowed to enrich uranium. “There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the US will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust’,” he wrote on Truth Social.

 

He also threatened 50 per cent tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran.

 

Israel, too, has made it clear that it would not allow Iran to move forward with this proposal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel still has additional goals, including addressing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. He said this would be achieved through “diplomacy or through force”.

 

“We have set the terror regime back years. The enriched material will leave Iran through agreement or through renewed combat. Israel and the US see eye to eye on this issue,” Netanyahu said in a video statement to the press.

 

Over the past month, the US and Israel have carried out joint strikes on Iran’s key infrastructure, including nuclear-linked sites. Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed the Bushehr facility had been “bombed” four times since the war erupted on February 28, criticising what he described as a lack of concern for its safety.

 

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed “deep concern about the reported incident and says [nuclear] sites or nearby areas must never be attacked, noting that auxiliary site buildings may contain vital safety equipment”, the statement read.

 

Hormuz shipping tolls spark global concern

 

Control of the Strait of Hormuz -- one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes -- has also emerged as a contentious issue. Iran is demanding cryptocurrency fees for oil tankers passing through the strait during the ceasefire, aiming to maintain leverage over the key chokepoint that carries about 20 per cent of global oil supplies.

 

Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told The Financial Times that tankers must email authorities about their cargo, pay $1 per barrel in digital currency and obtain approval before passage. He added that empty vessels can pass free.

 

Iran had earlier agreed to allow vessels through the strait for two weeks, with their movement coordinated by the Iranian military.

 

Later on Wednesday, Iran said it was halting the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Ships in the Gulf also received radio warnings that they could face military strikes unless they first obtained approval from Iranian authorities.

 

Transit through the strait has become one of the most difficult issues in negotiations. Iran views the waterway as a major source of leverage, while the US and its Gulf allies insist that international shipping must remain unrestricted.

 

Before the ceasefire announcement, Trump had warned that the US would obliterate Iranian civilisation if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. He said his final deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway was set for “Tuesday, 8 pm Eastern Time”. However, the ceasefire announcement was made an hour before this deadline ended.

 

Iran accuses US of violating negotiation framework

 

Iranian leaders have also accused Washington of violating the proposed negotiation framework even before formal talks begin.

 

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, said the US had already breached several provisions of the 10-point proposal.

 

“The deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments -- a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again,” Ghalibaf said.

 

He said the framework had been described by Trump as a “workable basis on which to negotiate”, but claimed that three key clauses had already been violated.

 

These include what Iran calls the failure to ensure a ceasefire in Lebanon, an alleged drone intrusion into Iranian airspace that was later destroyed in Fars province, and the rejection of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.

 

“Now, the very ‘workable basis on which to negotiate’ has been openly and clearly violated, even before the negotiations began,” Ghalibaf said. “In such a situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.”

 

Talks begin under heavy pressure

 

As US and Iranian envoys prepare to meet in Islamabad, the survival of the ceasefire may depend on how these flashpoints are addressed.

 

If the disputes remain unresolved, the fragile pause in fighting could collapse, raising the risk of wider conflict, higher global oil prices and further instability in West Asia.