The US will replace the H-1B lottery with a weighted system favouring higher pay and scarcer skills, aligning visas with market value rather than chance
With visa numbers capped, welfare gains rise when permits go to the most valuable skills—best reflected by wages in an open labour market
The shift comes amid a broader US crackdown on migration and renewed political backlash against high-skill immigration, especially from India
Large Indian ITeS and staffing firms flooded the lottery with multiple applications, cornering a large share of visas and undermining trust
A lottery distorted by mass filings was never politically viable; genuine applicants now face costs of an outdated outsourcing-led approach
Markets expect Indian ITeS to evolve beyond dependence on H-1B labour arbitrage. The sector must modernise—or risk long-term erosion