A brief pause in US strikes raised hopes, but Iran’s refusal to negotiate underscores uncertainty. Prolonged attacks on energy assets risk lasting global consequences
The conflict is already impacting India through gas shortages and disrupted supply chains, with effects not fully captured in macroeconomic indicators
Gas shortages are hurting businesses, forcing worker migration and risking closures of small firms—raising concerns of medium-term output and employment loss
West Asia is a key export market. Prolonged conflict could dent India’s $57 billion Gulf exports, compounding the risk of a broader growth slowdown
Limited pass-through of energy prices strains oil firms and government finances, with risks to tax revenues, subsidies, and dividend inflows
Rising inflation, a widening current account deficit, and weak capital flows call for coordinated action by the government and RBI to preserve stability