June inflation rose to 4.38%, moving above the RBI's 4% target as food and fuel prices gathered pace
West Asia tensions have revived crude price risks. Disruptions could keep oil prices high and add to inflationary pressures
With crude prices firming again, retail fuel prices are unlikely to fall soon, keeping inflation risks elevated
A weak monsoon has slowed kharif sowing. Poor rainfall could lift food prices and make inflation more persistent
The MPC must balance growth and inflation as uncertainty over oil and the monsoon clouds the outlook
For now, holding rates steady looks prudent. The next policy move will depend on oil prices and the monsoon