BS EDIT: Is growth slowing? Insights from RBI’s monthly bulletin

By Business StandardPublished On Oct 28, 2024

Slower growth momentum

RBI notes demand growth continues but at a slower pace, projecting 7.2% annual growth, though high-frequency indicators reveal mixed signals

Weak urban demand

Q1 2024-25 corporate results show slower real gross value added. Fast-moving consumer goods report slowing urban demand, while rural demand remains positive

GDP growth slows

Q1 GDP growth hit a five-quarter low at 6.7%, partly due to reduced government spending during elections. Q2 data will provide further trend clarity

Auto sales pattern

Post-Covid auto sales show mixed trends: passenger vehicle sales rebounded, but two-wheeler sales, a rural demand indicator, remain 15% below 2018-19 levels

Increased agricultural workforce

The agricultural workforce grew from 42.5% in 2018-19 to 46.1% in 2023-24, countering typical trends as economic growth usually reduces agricultural dependence

Balancing growth

Post-Covid growth is mostly govt-driven; sustained growth needs more pvt investment, but recent data shows corporations favouring financial over real investment