Economic uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the RBI’s policy review, with global developments and domestic risks likely to influence the MPC’s assessment
The fragile situation in West Asia and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns for India, a major energy importer dependent on global oil flows
While crude oil price pressures have been partly absorbed by oil companies, rising inflation and food price concerns continue to shape the RBI’s policy outlook
A possible El Niño impact and below-normal rainfall could affect food production and inflation expectations, though the MPC is unlikely to react immediately
Foreign inflows have supported the rupee, but higher global bond yields and uncertainty in developed markets continue to pose challenges for emerging economies
Temporary inflows may provide relief, but addressing balance-of-payments pressures will require policies that attract stable, long-term foreign investment into India