Poll outcome will shape India-Bangladesh ties

Hasina’s party, the Awami League, has been banned from participating in the election, and a Dhaka tribunal has sentenced her to death for the 2024 crackdown. There are no signs that India will extradite Hasina, given India’s history with Bangladesh’s creation (1971) and the role her family played in the country’s fight for freedom from Pakistan.

According to some analysts, India might have a better chance of resetting ties if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) comes to power or has the upper hand in any alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, a hardline party that has always advocated for Bangladesh’s stronger ties with Pakistan. Although opinion polls suggest that the BNP is ahead in the February election, the Jamaat, which is contesting widely, swept university polls in September 2025. In 2024, the interim government lifted a ban on the Jamaat that Hasina had imposed, accusing the country’s largest Islamist party of provoking unrest.

Riva Ganguly Das, India’s former ambassador to Bangladesh, described the present situation in Bangladesh as “very complex” and said India should wait and watch.

Both the BNP and the Jamaat want to win, Ganguly Das said. “But with the Awami kept out, you can’t say there’s a level-playing field in the polls.”  

The election will primarily become a contest between the BNP and the Jamaat that has been influential behind the scenes, especially since Hasina’s ouster.

If this is seen as an inflection point in Bangladeshi politics, the people in general and the Jamaat in particular need to decide how important the Bengali identity is to them, Ganguly Das said.

An old debate in Bangladesh society centres on national identity: cultural versus religious.

  There have been allegations of the Awami League rigging elections in the past, but because Bangladesh had two main parties for decades, a new scenario will be a major shift. Hasina’s party has been weakened — many of its local leaders have fled and others have been detained.

  Yunus has announced that alongside the general election, a referendum to a new reform charter will be held, which among other things (for one, constitutionally recognising the 2024 movement) seeks to strengthen presidential powers and place prime ministerial term limits (no formal limit exists). While it is unclear if he wants to become president, as some have suggested, he is in favour of passing it. For now, the prime minister’s office holds most power.

  India-Bangladesh relations are strained, from visas to cricket.

  “Yunus has made India the bogeyman. Such rhetoric is not helpful,” Ganguly Das said, adding that the political approach would have to change for any meaningful relationship with India.

  After Bangladesh’s former prime minister and BNP leader Khaleda Zia died on December 30, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar visited Dhaka to attend her funeral and met her son Tarique Rahman, who was previously abroad in exile for 17 years. Since Zia and Hasina were arch-rivals, Rahman is seen as the heir to his mother’s political legacy. The BNP last held power nationally in 2006.

  Jaishankar’s meeting with Rahman and his team presented the potential of a new phase in the bilateral relationship, Humayun Kabir, Rahman’s foreign affairs adviser, told Al Jazeera.

  The Indian government has said it expects the post-election Bangladeshi government to be inclusive.

Rahman has positioned himself as a centrist. But even if the Jamaat, which has a conservative ideology, wins, India has little option than to do business with Bangladesh.

  “Hasina was able to keep Pakistani activity under control, but she also played the ‘China card’” to balance India and China, Ganguly Das said.

  India and Bangladesh resolved the border dispute during Hasina’s time but issues such as illegal migration and water-sharing remain. India has tightened security at the Bangladesh border, once considered “porous”, since Hasina’s exit.

  The former diplomat said economic exchanges and connectivity should grow. “India should invest more in Bangladesh.”

Bilateral trade touched $13 billion in 2025. India’s Exim Bank has offered $8 billion worth of lines of credit to Bangladesh in the past. More recently, India withdrew transhipment facilities for Bangladeshi goods and Bangladesh restricted the import of Indian yarn and paper.

  The Bangladeshi media have published commentary that blames India for turning a blind eye to what they call Hasina’s misrule. Even so, the deep cultural and economic links between the two countries make a turnaround in ties seem possible.

  Whichever party or coalition comes to power, it must announce a bold initiative and push the reset button with India, the Bangladeshi economist Abdullah Shibli wrote in The Daily Star, a Dhaka-based newspaper, in October, identifying areas of collaboration.