China's growing space ambitions

The white paper concentrated on setting specific development and technological milestones for China’s space programme within seven mission areas — space launch; space infrastructure; manned space flight;  deep space exploration; telemetry, tracking and command (TT&C);  experiments in new technologies; and space environment governance.

On the launch capability, there has been a significant development in the ability of the rockets to carry a heavier payload of approximately 25 tonnes. The Changzheng 5 series of rockets have been successful in this. The second aspect is the ability to launch on demand. From 39 launches in 2020, China did more than 60 launches in 2022, 2023 and 2024. It surpassed that feat in 2025 by recording 93 launches. Third is the successful testing and launching of reusable spacecraft.

Shenlong, which was first launched in 2020, was lifted off for the fourth time on February 7. Last two launches of Shenlong saw the spacecraft operating in space for approximately nine months. It is likely to be a rival for the  X37B of the United States’ (US’) Space Force. On February 11, China tested its Dream Vessel, which is likely to take China’s taikonauts (Chinese astronauts) to the Moon in the future.

China has been furiously developing its space infrastructure. It completed the construction of Tiangong Space Station in 2022. It is well on its way to establishing a permanently occupied space station by 2030. With Russia pulling out of the International Space Station (ISS) by 2028 and the ISS being decommissioned in 2030 by National Aeronautics and Space Administration, China will have the only space station till India’s space station becomes operational by 2035.

China has been planning to establish an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) on the Moon to carry out research of deep space, rivalling the Artemis programme of the US. ILRS will be a permanent, automated, and eventually crewed scientific research station at the Moon’s South Pole. Russia and 17 countries have signed on to the ILRS, while 59 countries have signed on to the Artemis. China has established the BeiDou (compass) navigation system with 48 satellites, the last two of them to experiment for the fourth phase of the system.

This has enabled China to have an alternative to the Global Positioning System (GPS). It has linked BeiDou with GPS, Global Navigation Satellite System and Galileo systems for seamless connectivity for its customers. China has also embarked on two government-led programmes to establish a counter to the Starlink programme.

Guowang (national network) and Qianfan (Thousand Sails) with 14,000 and 13,000 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, respectively, will provide internet and communications globally. China has carried out refuelling of its satellites in orbit. Shijian 21 and Shijian 25 came very close to each other in the geosynchronous orbit on June 13 and 30, 2025. Two satellites of the US monitored them. In another very complicated manoeuvre, four satellites of China made a synchronised move very close to each other from April to December 2024.

Shiyan 24 (SY 24) C 01, 02 and 03 conducted very close approaches to Shijian 6 05A. In April 2024, very intricate and close manoeuvres were conducted. Rendezvous and Proximity Operations (RPO) were conducted between SY 24 C 01 with 02 and 03 and also with the SJ 6 05A satellite. Towards the end of April 2024, SY 24C 03 moved its RPO to SY 24C 01. These activities show a very high level of sophistication in space operations and infrastructure building.

For the manned space flight, Shenzhou 21 set a record by a 3.5-hour autonomous rendezvous and docking with Tiangong and this will increase the operational efficiency of the system. China plans to land its taikonauts on the Moon by 2030. A Long March 10 rocket is undergoing testing for the same. New space suits are being tested for Moon landing. China is also testing the YF 102 V vertical take-off and landing engines that use liquid oxygen kerosene and are designed for multiple restarts for cost-effective reusable launchers.

In deep space exploration, Chang’e programme deals with exploration of the Moon. In 2024, Chang’e 6 returned with samples from the far side of the Moon. This was the first-ever space mission to do so.

Chang’e 7 and 8 scheduled for 2026 and 2028, respectively, are meant to build the foundation for ILRS in collaboration with other countries that have signed on to the programme. The Tianwen programme is intended for Mars and other planetary exploration. Tianwen 2 was launched in 2025 to collect samples of the asteroid close to the Earth called 469219 Kamoʻoalewa (2016 HO3) and to explore a main belt comet. Tianwen 3 is scheduled for 2028 to bring back samples from Mars and reach the Earth by 2031.

Another vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) rocket called Yuanxingzhe – 1 (“original star vehicle”), manufactured by Space Epoch (officially Beijing Jianyuan Technology), was tested from a ship on the sea on May 29, 2025 to reduce costs. Development of next generation rockets is underway to support crewed lunar missions and large-scale space construction. The Tiangong space station mentioned before is functional and has been conducting crewed missions for approximately six months long.

TT&C is another area where China has displayed global capabilities. That capability is further accentuated by cooperation agreements with other countries to place China well on its way to achieve its mid and long- term development plans, which are expected to be announced in 2026. The TT&C assets of China include nine domestic stations, four domestic launch sites and five sea launch barges, two aerospace control centres at Xi’an and Beijing, many signal intelligence satellites in LEO and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), 18 stations abroad to which China has access, four Yuanwang space and missile tracking ships (Yuanwang 3, 5, 6 and 7) and the Liaowang 1 Space and missile tracking ship that was commissioned in April last year.

A number of new technologies are being experimented. In addition to the reusable VTOL technology and in-orbit servicing mentioned earlier, the Shenzhou 21 crew conducted research on plant stem cell regulation (Arabidopsis, a small flowering plant in the mustard family), microgravity fluid physics, brain cognition and lithium-ion battery dendrite growth. Testing of space mission extension vehicles is also being done.

Experiments with SJ 25 satellites for refuelling in orbit fall into this category. In addition to the Guowang and Qianfan satellite constellations already explained, quantum key transmission is being experimented. Readers may recall that China launched its first quantum satellite called Micius in 2016 and followed it up with Jinan 1 in July 2022.

For high-speed communication, which means that communicating with hypersonic vehicles of Mach 5 speed to overcome the plasma coating on the missiles due to very high speed, China is carrying out testing of Ka band communications satellite with ground based laser links.

China has established a Tianlian system for high-speed data transfer and voice communications for crewed spacecraft (Shenzhou), the Tiangong space station, and various satellites. The Tianlian 1 and Tianlian 2 series of satellites have been launched, with the latest ones being Tianlian 2 system satellites 4 and 5 in March and April 2025, respectively. The Tian wen 2 mission launched on May 28, 2025 is on a multi-year mission to study and sample 2016 HO3. It is expected to return to the Earth in November 2027 with samples.

China is planning to launch a probe to study the Jovian system (Jupiter, its officially recognised moons, a faint ring system, and a vast magnetic field) in 2029, with an aim to reach at the destination around 2035. An Interstellar Heliosphere Probe (IHP), namely Interstellar Express involving two spacecraft IHP 1 and IHP 2, to travel to the edge of the solar system (100+ Astronomical Unit or AU) by 2049 is also on the cards. An AU is the distance between the Sun and the Earth, which is approximately 149.6 million kilometres. Future goals exist to explore the outer solar system through the 2040s.

The last of the mission areas is space environment governance. China seems to be improving its space debris management. However, it is lagging behind in its goals in this aspect. China is increasing its ability to control space traffic by improving its national space system and satellite manoeuvering capabilities to avoid collisions, particularly in the crowded LEO. Considerable progress is being made in the development of new space materials, equipment, and techniques, such as electric propulsion and smart self-management of spacecraft. China’s officially stated policy is the peaceful use of outer space and to that effect, it has signed over 40 space cooperation agreements with 29 countries/organisations since 2011 to promote a framework for collaboration.

However, it is a known fact that China is developing counterspace capabilities, which are a major component of militarising space. Right from the beginning, China’s space programme was run by the General Armament Department of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). When military reforms took place in 2016, the Aerospace Department became part of the Strategic Support Force (SSF) of the PLA.

Presently, the Aerospace Force is considered to be an arm by itself directly reporting to the Central Military Commission, post the disbandment of SSF in 2024. Starting from 2007, China has been testing direct assent anti-satellite weapon systems to destroy satellites in the LEO. So far, seven such tests have been recorded. Further research is on to develop such capabilities for Medium Earth Orbit  and GEO. China has developed capabilities to use robotic arms to push satellites out of their orbit. This test was carried out in 2022. China is known to develop directed energy weapons such as lasers to damage other satellites. High-power microwave weapons such as the TPG 1000C can generate 20 gigawatt of power to disable electronic circuits of other satellites.

The capability exists with China for RPO operations to surveil or interfere with other satellites. China possesses capabilities to interfere with position, navigation and timing (PNT) of other satellites through cyber and electronic warfare capabilities. It has employed reusable spacecrafts, which have released unidentified objects in space. All these point towards extensive counterspace capabilities being developed by China.

Where does this leave India and its space programme? India has a proven ability in the space sector. Its Mangalyan mission was achieved at a portion of the cost of other Western capabilities. Launching multiple satellites in one launch and a proliferated LEO constellation for regional PNT services are ongoing. Slowly, the integration of military and civilian requirements are converging. While it has some catching up to do, India is a space power in its own right.