A year after Operation Sindoor

The precursors to the Operation, which was dominated by drones, air defence and precision strikes, are the Azerbaijan-Armenia and the Russia–Ukraine conflicts. While much has been written about the Operation itself, this piece aims to look at 15 issues that happened in the year that has gone by, after Operation Sindoor. Technically, the Operation is at a pause and not terminated according to the Indian government.

First is international relations. The immediate fallout of the Operation was US President Donald Trump claiming to have ended it, and Pakistan supporting the claim. He has claimed more than 80 times that he played a major role in bringing the Operation to an end, latest being as late as February 24, during his State of the Union Address. India has denied every time that there was any external factor in ending Operation Sindoor and it was done after Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) called the DGMO of India, requesting that India stop the Operation. This resulted in a standoff between India and the United States (US) that was exacerbated by the tariff issue, which was affecting India-US relations adversely. The beneficiary of President Trump’s claim is Pakistan. All of a sudden, Pakistan became the blue-eyed boy of the US. That has resulted in Pakistan gaining somewhat in stature. Pakistan hosting the Iran–US talks on April 11 can be attributed to this. Even though the US–India relations are not the same as they used to be, India seems to have held its own as President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have spoken on three occasions in recent times, and the discussions on the bilateral trade agreement are still on. At the time of writing, there is an Indian delegation in the US discussing the bilateral trade agreement.

Second is the bilateral relations. While terrorism has come down post-Operation Sindoor, the bilateral relations between India and Pakistan remain frozen. There has been practically no interaction, but for the mandatory declaration of the details of nuclear installations and facilities under the 1988 Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities. On January 1 this year, the details were exchanged as has been the practice. It may be recalled that the relations between India and Pakistan were downgraded with the respective high commissioners being recalled and India revoking the Most Favoured Nation Status of Pakistan due to the 2019 Pulwama attack.

Defence modernisation

Third is the defence budget of India. For the financial year 2026-27, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the defence budget on February 1, which saw an increase of 15.19 per cent, approximately $87 billion (2 per cent of the gross domestic product). In the past many years, the increase in the defence budget has not been this high. Previously, when the budget was substantially increased was in 2009-10 (34.91 per cent) post the 2008 Mumbai attacks and in 2023-24 (13 per cent). This has shown India’s inclination to modernise its armed forces, keeping the changing character of war in mind. Another important factor is that procurement of indigenously-manufactured equipment by India’s armed forces is gathering speed along with increased effort on research and development.

Fourth is the development of the drone industry in India. Given the importance of drones in modern-day warfare, a Bengaluru-based company has produced a drone named Sheshnaag-150, which has a range of 1,000 kilometres (km) and can operate as part of a swarm. Companies like the IdeaForge, Adani–Elbit and Tata Advanced Systems have delivered advanced strike and surveillance platforms to India’s armed forces. The Drone Federation of India looks after 550 drone manufacturing companies and 5,500 drone pilots. It is focusing now on harmonising design and indigenisation and also incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) in the drones being manufactured in India. Amongst modern techniques, 3D printing and onsite assembly of drones close to forward-defended localities along the LoC are being worked on. During Operation Sindoor, more than 600 drones were neutralised. Therefore, a major emphasis is being laid on counter-drone systems. Counter-drone operations are of two types — one dealing in hard kill and the other in soft kill. Hard kill involves physically neutralising the adversary’s drone, whereas soft kill involves capturing the drone or making it ineffective by using electromagnetic systems.

Fifth is the reorganisation of Indian Army Units. Indian Army (IA) battalions now have Ashni platoons in infantry battalions. These are being equipped with drones. IA has also raised Bhairav battalions, which are light commando battalions for rapid response to incidents like the Baisaran Valley attack. Rudra Brigades, which have armour, artillery, and other components, including unmanned aerial vehicles, have been raised  to operate as a modularised brigade similar to the integrated battle groups. The integrated battle groups, which have been tried out in some formations, are smaller size divisions that are integrated with all combat elements. These changes are also meant for formations operating on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

Sixth is the theaterisation of India’s armed forces. Theaterisation has been in the works for many years now. However, the importance of joint operations came out clearly during the Operation. The integration of air defence resources of all three services was the main reason for the success of neutralising incoming projectiles. The success of the Operation gave further impetus to the process of theaterisation. Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, said during Ran Samwad in Bengaluru on April 9 that the proposal of the armed forces for the theaterisation is being readied and will be sent to the Ministry of Defence for approval soon.

Seventh, there were intense counter-terror operations carried out under Operation Mahadev and the three terrorists who committed the massacre in Baisaran Valley were neutralised. Moreover, in the counter-terrorism operations post-Operation Sindoor, 31 terrorists were neutralised, of which approximately 65 per cent were of Pakistan origin. The Central Reserve Police Force has established 43 temporary operating bases in Jammu and Kashmir after the Baisaran Valley attack last year. According to intelligence available, around 40 foreign terrorists in the Jammu region, 60 foreign terrorists in the Kashmir Valley and two local terrorists are active and operations are ongoing to neutralise them. Due to pressure from security forces, the terrorists have moved away from population centres and located themselves in forests in areas above 6,000 feet. Security forces have also dismantled the overground workers’ network that assisted the terrorists.

Stringent measures

Eighth is when, for the first time since independence, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was held in abeyance in April 2025. Though the IWT has been held in abeyance, India is not in a position to utilise the entire water allocated to it. To do that, India is fast-tracking the commissioning of the Pakal Dul and Kiru projects by December 2026, completing the Kwar project by March 2028, and expediting construction of the strategically sensitive Ratle dam. It has also announced the construction of a 113 km-long canal connecting the Chenab River with the Ravi-Beas-Sutlej system, ensuring optimal utilisation of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). This canal will help the water-stressed areas of Rajasthan. This canal is expected to be completed by mid-2028. When completed, these projects will have significant implications for Pakistan’s agriculture.

Ninth is the closure of the Attari-Wagah border after the Pahalgam terror attack. It remains closed till date. The Beating Retreat ceremony that was cancelled for about 12 days recommenced on May 20 last year with two modifications. The gates that used to be opened for a short time remain closed, and the handshake ceremony has been suspended. This shows that the relations are not yet normal.

Tenth is the suspension of bilateral trade between India and Pakistan. Even before Operation Sindoor, the trade between India and Pakistan plummeted from nearly $3 billion in 2018 to roughly $1.2 billion in 2024. Post-Operation Sindoor, barring medical products, there has been no other trade between the two countries. According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the bilateral trade in calendar year 2025-26 was $352.26 million, and Pakistan faced a trade deficit of $351.93 million. 

Eleventh is when all visas issued to Pakistani nationals to visit India were revoked, and they were asked to go back to Pakistan. Whatever little interactions people of India and Pakistan had, came to an end. Pakistan’s nationals were also barred from using the Saarc Visa Exemption Scheme to enter India. However, long-term visas held by Hindu Pakistani nationals were not revoked. Later in October and November, Pakistan allowed 2,100 Indians for pilgrimage on the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev. However, people-to-people connections are almost negligible.

Twelfth, India imposed a total cultural boycott. This implied that Pakistani artists and actors were not allowed to take part in or act in events and films in India. Even Pakistan’s cricketers were not allowed to take part in the Indian Premier League, which is very popular, and rewarding to the players.

Thirteen, though there is a feeling that India lost the narrative war, India launched a global campaign to expose Pakistan’s terror activities. India also dispatched seven teams of parliamentarians to more than 30 countries, comprising members from the ruling National Democratic Alliance and the opposition parties, leading to increased international scrutiny on Pakistan and support for India’s right to self-defence.

Fourteen is the tightening of surveillance on the LoC. With increasing drone activity, there has been an effort to improve the integration between the IA, Rashtriya Rifles, the police and the civil administration to improve surveillance and anti-terror activities. 

Fifteen, Pakistan banned Indian aircraft from using its airspace. On April 21, it extended the ban till May 24. As a countermeasure, India banned Pakistani aircraft from using its airspace. This has resulted in aircraft flying to India to take a detour, which in turn imposes a time and cost penalty on aircraft flying from the Western countries to India, and Pakistan’s aircraft that fly to the East. Indian carriers lost approximately $800 billion-$1 billion, the block times for travel increased from 2 to 5 hours, and fuel consumption increased by 15-20 per cent. In the first two months after the closure of the airspace, Pakistan lost approximately $44 million in transit fees and air traffic was reduced by 20 per cent.

These are facts on the points mentioned above. If one were to look at a prognosis of the India-Pakistan relations, it appears that there is unlikely to be an improvement in the foreseeable future. On the Chinese front, the LAC has been stable since the agreement signed on October 21, 2024, between India and China. That trend is also likely to continue. China-Pakistan relationship will continue to be close as it has been hithertofore if not better.