Air defence losses pushed Pak for ceasefire during Op Sindoor: Think tank

The Indian Air Force (IAF) achieved decisive air superiority over Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, pushing Pakistan to seek a ceasefire on May 10 last year, said a detailed military assessment by a Swiss think tank.

The report, titled “Operation Sindoor: The India–Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025)”, was published by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military research institute founded in 1969 and based in Pully, Switzerland. 

The CHPM specialises in military history, air-power analysis and lessons-learned studies, providing third-party assessments of air warfare that focus on operational outcomes rather than political narratives.

The assessment was authored by Adrien Fontanellaz, a Swiss military historian known for his work on modern air warfare, and translated into English by Benedict Smith, a former French defence attaché to India. 

The study was formally reviewed by a panel that included Claude Meier, a retired Major General of the Swiss Air Force and former Chief of Staff; Joseph Henrotin, a European strategic affairs analyst; and Arthur Lüsenti, a specialist in international security and nuclear deterrence.

Strategic response

India’s response was deliberately structured as a limited, but high-intensity air campaign designed to impose military costs while maintaining escalation control between two nuclear-armed states, the CHPM report noted.

According to the report, the initial phase of the conflict saw Pakistan’s attempt to seize the initiative through a combination of drones, rockets and missile strikes aimed at Indian military installations and air-defence systems. The report estimates that Pakistan launched between 300 and 600 unmanned aerial vehicles, along with artillery rockets and ballistic missiles, over the course of the conflict. These included a mix of reconnaissance and strike drones, as well as attempts to locate and suppress Indian radar and command nodes.

However, the report finds that these efforts largely failed due to the resilience of India’s integrated air-defence network, highlighting the role of India’s Integrated Air Command, Control and Communication System (IACCCS), working in conjunction with the Army’s Akashteer network and naval sensors. 

This integration helped India to generate a real-time recognised air picture, enabling rapid interception of incoming threats while denying Pakistan the ability to map Indian air-defence layouts, the report stated.

According to the report, the turning point of the conflict came on May 10, when the IAF executed a series of coordinated precision strikes by flying deep into Pakistani airspace. Indian aircraft launched long-range munitions from within the territory, significantly reducing exposure to enemy air defence systems.

The weapons employed included BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles and Rampage missiles, fired from platforms such as Su-30 MKIs, Rafale fighters and Jaguar strike aircraft.

These strikes targeted at least seven major Pakistani military sites located up to 200 kilometres inside Pakistan, including key air bases at Nur Khan, Murid, Rahim Yar Khan, Rafiqi, Sukkur, Sargodha and Jacobabad.

The report states that runways, hardened aircraft shelters, radar installations, command-and-control facilities and maintenance infrastructure were hit. While Sargodha was multiple runway impacts reportedly disrupted flight operations, Jacobabad saw damage to an F-16 maintenance hangar and associated radar systems. Another hangar housing one or more Erieye aircraft was severely damaged at Bholari Air Base.

‘Pak suffered huge losses’

The Swiss think tank estimates, based on satellite imagery and strike effects assessments, that Pakistan suffered significant losses on the ground.

The report assessing IAF said that at least four or five F-16s, one Erieye, one C-130 transport aircraft, several MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) drones, two radars, two command-and-control centres and one Surface-to-Air Missile battery were destroyed on the ground, at the cost of roughly 50 long-range munitions.

However, Pakistan reported that the Erieye hit at Bholari was only lightly damaged and was quickly repaired though five personnel were killed in the strike, the report said.

The report concludes that following the strikes and destruction by midday on May 10, Pakistan’s ability to contest the air domain had been severely degraded. The IAF was assessed to have achieved operational air superiority, defined as the freedom to conduct air and missile operations while denying the adversary effective retaliation.

  Pakistan sought a ceasefire with mounting risks to its remaining air assets and limited escalation options, which India accepted, bringing the 88-hour conflict to an end.

The Swiss analysis frames Operation Sindoor as a modern, network-centric air campaign in which precision strikes, integrated air defence and escalation management proved decisive.