India seen upping deterrence, deploys 12 warheads

It added that the country’s nuclear modernisation programme “is increasingly focused on developing long-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China, although planning also continues to be focused on India’s long-standing rivalry with Pakistan”.

According to a separate old (2020) article, by Sipri experts Hans M Kristensen and Matt Korda, “India appears to be taking steps to increase the responsiveness of its arsenal by ‘canisterising’ some of its ballistic missiles.”

They explained this refers to keeping missiles in a tube to protect them from the elements while being transported. Missiles can also be launched directly from canisters through a process that involves using a gas generator to eject the missile from the canister before ignition. Missiles launched from canisters are “pre-mated” with their warheads to ensure rapid launch. Submarines on deterrence patrol also have “pre-mated” warheads.

Pakistan continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2025, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal might expand over the coming decade, the new report said. 

“The brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2025 saw India attacking Pakistani air-and-missile bases that are likely to have nuclear-related roles, but both sides took steps to avoid escalation.” 

While Pakistan, which has a stockpile of 170, does not have any nuclear warheads deployed, the Sipri report showed. China had 34 deployed warheads.

The report estimated China has around 620 nuclear warheads. “China is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country” and showcased several new nuclear systems during its 2025 military parade. By January, China had loaded hundreds of missiles into three large missile silo fields in the country’s north, while working to complete 30 silos in three mountainous areas in the country’s east, the report added.

Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the United States (US) by the turn of the decade, it said. Even if China surpasses 1,000 warheads by 2030, that will still amount to only about one-quarter of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles.

In 2025, Russia had the highest deployed warheads at 1,796 from its stockpile of 4,000 or so, and the US had 1,770 deployed warheads from its stockpile of 3,700.

Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is believed to be modernising its arsenal. In 2025, “Israel intensified construction” at a new site at the Negev Nuclear Research Center that could be related to its nuclear capabilities, the report said. 

While nuclear programmes have always been shrouded in secrecy, in recent years nuclear-armed states have shifted further towards strategic ambiguity and opacity even as they modernise and expand their nuclear forces, the report added in assessment.