The Candidates begins this weekend at the Savoy Hotel, London. This is the Agon's first event as part of the deal with Fide. The double round-robin will select the challenger for Anand in a title match at the end of 2013.
The field is obviously, strong with Carlsen, Kramnik, Aronyan, Radjabov, Grischuk, Ivanchuk, Svidler and Gelfand. An event like this has several unusual characteristics. The stakes are huge nd there are no weak players and so, no question of mopping up the bottom of the table.
Carlsen should win on current form and rating. Any of the others could. But they would need to be in the form of their lives while Carlsen merely needs to play at slightly above normal level. The Norwegian GM has upped his preparation by hiring Peter Hiene Nielsen, Anand's former second. This is not only a sign that he's taking things seriously here, it makes a significant difference to Team Anand's configuration if Carlsen does come through.
Of the others, Kramnik with his chronic health issues may lack physical reserves to play all out through 14-rounds.
The same consideration applies to Gelfand and Ivanchuk, though more due to age than ill-health in their cases. Aronyan has stability issues though he is the second-favourite (third on rating). The others are "known unknowns" in that they've rarely won really strong events.
The diagram, WHITE TO PLAY (Carlsen Vs Valery Popov , Wijk An Zee 2004) is an early specimen of Carlsen from the event where he hit his first GM and won the C group as a 13-year-old.
He was unprepared in the opening - a Sicilian Poisoned Pawn - and found good moves on the board. He blasted it open with 19. c4! dxc4? This loses. Instead 19… Rxf1 20. Rxf1 leaves the black king exposed. 20. Rxf8 Kxf8 Or 20… Bxf8 21. Bh5 g6 22. Qd8 Kf7 23. Rf1 Kg8 24. Qe8 Ra7 25. Qxc8 gh5 26. Qxe6+ 21. Qf4 Ke8 22. Rf1 Ra7 Or 22… Bxg5 23. Qf7 Kd8 24. Rd1 forces 24… Qd3. The finish was 23. Qf7 Kd7 24. Rd1 Kc6 25. Qe8 Kb6 Or 25… Bd7 26. Qxe7 Qxe7 27. Bxe7 26. Qxc8 (1-0).
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