Sowing seeds of change

UMPIRE`S POST

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are the main contenders at the Australian Open, but watch out for Andy Murray.

For the first time since Roger Federer began to win everywhere, and his loss to Rafael Nadal at the French Open became a fixture, we are going into a Grand Slam that is wide open. Any of the top four seeds at the Australian Open, which begins tomorrow in Melbourne, has a legitimate chance of winning it. What makes it more interesting is that each of the four also has a legitimate chance of losing. Part of the credit for that should go to Andy Murray.

Nadal is the legitimate top-ranked player in the world but has not been at the top of his game of late. Federer, at this time last year, looked unbeatable everywhere except on clay against Nadal. That, as well as his ranking, has changed since Nadal beat him in an epic Wimbledon final last year.

Federer perhaps remains the world’s best all-surface player, but he has a point to prove and his recent statements show an edge he did not have earlier. Novak Djokovic, the third seed, won the Australian Open last year and can very well do it again. That brings us to Murray, the fourth seed, and his role in throwing open this tournament.

In three attempts so far, Murray’s best showing at the Australian Open is the fourth round, which he reached in 2007. The other two times he lost in the first round. But this year may be different.

To begin with, Murray has beaten both Nadal and Federer this year. In fact, he has beaten Federer three times since losing to him in the US Open final, though one of his three wins was in an exhibition match. In fact, he has beaten Federer five times in their seven career meetings.

Since a humiliating defeat to Nadal at last year’s Wimbledon, he avenged the loss in the US Open semi-finals, then added the Madrid Masters title, beating Federer along the way. In Doha, he annihilated Andy Roddick. Clearly, Murray is the man in form.

Still, you never can tell. The first Grand Slam of the year has a knack of throwing up surprises. Last year’s final showing of France’s Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came in the wake of Chile’s Fernando González the year before, and before that Marcos Baghdatis of Cyprus, Rainer Schüettler of Germany, and Arnaud Clément, also of France.

It comes just after the off-season of November and December. As such, it favours players who train assiduously in spite of not playing in tournaments. That’s the reason why Andre Agassi, who trained like a demon, had a high success rate here. And so does Federer, whose fitness is the least appreciated aspect of his graceful game.