Monsoon forecast not to be revised as yet; final IMD update by month-end

The meteorological department is sticking to its forecast of the southwest monsoon being ‘above normal’, as of now. Its forecast for the second half of the four-month season is expected at the end of this week.

“We are studying our parameters,” said D S Pai, director for long range forecasts. The showers in July so far have been around 108 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The department had forecast July rains to be 107 per cent of the LPA.

July is the crucial month for sowing of kharif crops, as it gets the highest precipitation in the four-month season that runs from June to September. Till Monday, it was 100 per cent of the normal level and this is far better for standing crops than above normal rain, as the latter might trigger floods and water logging in some parts.

In its first forecast, made in April and updated in June, the department had said rains would be above normal this year, at 106 per cent of the LPA. It classifies 105-110 per cent of the LPA as ‘above normal’, while 96-104 per cent is called ‘normal rain’. LPA is the average rain the country gets during the four-month season, estimated to be 89 cm.  Private weather forecasting agency Skymet also says there is no reason to lower the forecast to ‘normal’, from ‘above normal’.

“The showers so far have been very good and there is strong possibility of it being maintained,” said Mahesh Palawat, its chief meteorological officer.  Skymet had forecast the monsoon to be 109 per cent of the LPA.