India Coronavirus Dispatch: Country could have 100 mn case in six weeks

How Jaipur has kept its health workers motivated, Covid-19 risk doesn't depend (much) on blood type, and what you need to know about pulse oximeters - news on how India is dealing with the pandemic

Interview
 

India could have 30 million undetected Covid-19 cases today; 100 million in six weeks: One of US' most regarded epidemiologists, who has been working on mathematical models of the trajectory of Covid-19 in India, says the country probably already has up to 30 million cases and in the next six weeks the total is likely to jump to 100 million. Read this interview with Professor Brahmar Mukherjee, who says the tally of 30 million includes the present official figure of 1.3 million and a further 28 million undetected asymptomatic cases. 

How Covid has hit learning: What has the prolonged absence from school meant for children? Read this interview with Rukmini Banerji, the CEO of Pratham Education Foundation, an NGO working to provide quality education to youth and children of India, on how learning loss happens, how it’s different this time, and what is the way forward when schools do reopen. 

Managing Covid-19
 

How Jaipur has kept its health workers motivated through the pandemic: Timely provision of on-demand testing for Covid-19, quarantine facilities, protective gear, and humane work conditions with fixed shifts and on-time salary ensured that Jaipur’s health workforce stayed motivated all through the ongoing pandemic. These factors allowed the city to build a robust network of confident medical staff who stayed focussed on patient care at the worst of times. Read more here. 

Covid positive again over a month after ‘recovery’ — Delhi cop’s case leaves experts puzzled: A Delhi policeman testing positive from Covid-19 again, within one and a half month of having “recovered”, has left doctors and health experts in the city searching for possible explanations. 
 

The 50-year-old had first tested positive on May 15 and was treated at the Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals until May 22. Though he was asymptomatic throughout, all positive patients had to be hospitalised at that time. Read more here. 

As hunger grows, Mumbai’s community kitchens may hold lessons on ensuring nutrition for the poor: With the world economy in continued downward spiral as countries have been forced into prolonged lockdowns, food insecurity poses a global humanitarian crisis. The pandemic has exposed the deep class divisions and inequality in terms of access to food, especially as livelihoods and incomes have begun to dry up, especially among those in the informal economy. Consequently, the urban poor have been eating less and forgoing expensive items that offer a balanced nutritious diet. Read more here. 

Opinion
 

A revolution in policy mindset: As attention shifts from the immediate health and human effects of the pandemic to addressing its social and economic effects, governments and societies face unprecedented policy, regulatory and fiscal choices. The SDGs — a commitment to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development, globally, by 2030 — can serve as a beacon in these turbulent times. Read more here. 

Should India's next fiscal push come only after a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available?
 

The Chief Economic Advisor of India said that the best time for demand-side fiscal stimulus measures would be after the development of a vaccine. Any increase in income through demand-side fiscal stimulus, would be absorbed by savings, and would not spur economic growth. Once a vaccine has been developed, and consumers feel confident to reduce their motives to save, fiscal stimulus would be more effective. Such an argument is problematic. The increase in savings at a time of collapsing private investment means that the economy is contracting, and government support is all the more necessary to prevent loss of employment. Read more here. 

Understanding Covid-19
 

Covid-19 risk doesn’t depend (much) on blood type, new studies find: Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers found preliminary evidence suggesting that people’s blood type might be an important risk factor — both for being infected by the virus and for falling dangerously ill. But over the past few months, after looking at thousands of additional patients with Covid-19, scientists are reporting a much weaker link to blood type. Two studies did not find that Type A blood increases the odds that people will be infected with Covid-19. Read more here. 
 

What you need to know about pulse oximeters: People with Covid-19 often need oxygenation support, so this tool, a staple for many doctors, has become something of a necessity for the layperson. Oximeters have been flying off the shelves for many households’ first aid kits, largely because they are non-invasive, low-cost, easy to use, and effective at detecting hypoxemia (low blood oxygen levels). Read more here. 

A coronavirus vaccine may have a high price tag – and set off an international race for first access: Access to medicines, in other words, is usually an ethical problem – not a scientific one. And that’s going to complicate the global coronavirus fight. Experts worry that any Covid-19 vaccine is likely to have a high price tag and, as a result, be unequally distributed according to countries’ purchasing power, not need. Read more here.

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