India Coronavirus Dispatch: How to prevent over 200,000 deaths by December

From Meghalaya's traditional institutions playing a critical role in containing the pandemic to Rambo circus going online, here's a roundup of news on how India is dealing with Covid-19

Circus goes online: Rambo Circus, one of India’s oldest and largest, has gone digital amid the pandemic. Tickets to what could possibly be the first-ever online circus show in India are on sale. Many circuses shut down during the nationwide lockdowns to contain the spread of the pandemic and some never came back. Artists and performers are now looking at Rambo’s online show with much hope. The show itself will tell the story of circuses from inception to their days of struggle. A technology upgrade for circuses is around the corner with many of them turning to animatronics, 3D effects, and so on. Read more here.

‘At a tipping point’: A new forecast for the pandemic, produced by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), shows that India can prevent over 200,000 deaths by December with widespread mask usage and data-based social distancing measures. In the best-case scenario, India can expect up to 291,145 total Covid-19 deaths by December 1. Mask usage will have to hit universal levels and states most affected in the pandemic would have to impose lockdowns for success, says the model. On the other hand, if mask usage remains at current levels and lockdown restrictions continue to ease, the model predicts 492,380 deaths by December 1. IHME said the epidemic is ‘far from over’ in the country. Read more here.

A case for local institutions: Meghalaya has so far prevented a widespread outbreak, earning praise from a WHO representative. This success can be attributed in part to the efforts of community-driven traditional institutions. The state has been exempted from the 73rd constitutional amendment Act, which mandates panchayat governance, since it already has a robust grassroots-level administration. These institutions are in the form of village-level assemblies. They have been involved in the same interventions as the state apparatus — providing quarantine facilities, logistical support to those who are under home isolation. These institutions rely on community volunteers who meet regularly to discuss updates from their localities and plan future responses accordingly. Read more here.

Understanding Covid-19

What you should know about hand sanitisers: Hand sanitisers are the most important weapon in the battle against the pandemic, next only to face masks. However, experts say that the effectiveness of the sanitiser depends largely on the type you use. Many hand sanitisers could take up to 2 minutes to the kill the virus instead of the 20-30 second time period widely-advertised. Broadly, there are two types of hand sanitisers: one with alcohol and one without. It’s the former that experts bet on since alcohol is proven to kill off viruses. Studies across the world now suggest that sanitisers with alcohol presence of 60% or more are the most effective. Further, soap and water are more efficient in combatting the virus than sanitisers. Experts say sanitisers should be used only when soap is unavailable. Read more here.

Vaccine on its way soon: This infectious diseases specialist says we should be optimistic of a Covid-19 vaccine being ready by January. Doubts have been raised about the vaccine, with some pointing out that we still don’t have a vaccine for HIV. However, she points to key research stands that point otherwise. She points to the fact that in 99 per cent of the cases, the patient recovers on their own. Hence, it should be easier to make a vaccine for Covid-19 than for infections like HIV where the immune system fails to cure on its own. Secondly, at least 7 labs have so far developed antibodies that recognise the virus’ spike protein — a critical step towards making the vaccine. Further, researchers are better placed now than they were a few decades ago to develop a safe vaccine that does not result in harmful side effects. Multiple vaccine candidates passing through Phase-I and Phase-II trials are further evidence that we are well on the way to finding a cure. Read more here. 

Remembering Ramachandran: The safest way out of the pandemic is to develop a vaccine. A quick scan through the list of Covid-19 vaccine candidates shows that over half the candidates are trying to use the virus’ spike protein to generate immunity. For this to be possible, getting the structure of protein is the most critical aspect. For this, G.N. Ramachandran’s work is most important. Among other things, the Ramachandran plot will be incredibly useful in understanding the virus and thus predicting its behaviour. Read more here.