Monsoon to hit Kerala coast in the next 48-72 hours: Met department

The forecast is in line with India Meteorological Department (IMD's) prediction of monsoon hitting Kerala coast by May 29

The southwest monsoon is on course and  expected to hit Kerala’s coast in the next 48-72 hours, a senior weather official said.

The forecast is in line with the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) earlier prediction of the monsoon coming there by May 29, with an error range of four days.

“Heavy rains in the next 72 hrs over Kerala and Lakshadweep,” tweeted M Rajeev, secretary to the ministry of earth sciences. This onset marks entry of the southwest monsoon over India.

IMD’s clarification puts to rest speculation over the impact of cyclone ‘Mekunu’ on the monsoon’s onset. Even so, coming on time over Kerala does not guarantee its normal progress over other parts of the country or on the overall performance of the rains.

The met department had in its first forecast of the monsoon for 2018, issued last month, predicted a ‘normal’ monsoon, albeit with a 42 per cent chance of this. If it happens, this would brighten recovery in the farm sector, which has seen fluctuating growth in the past four years.

IMD said rainfall in the June to September period was expected to be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with an error range of five per cent either way. LPA is the average annual rain across the country during 1951-2000, estimated at 89 centimetres.

IMD had also said there was a 30 per cent probability of below-normal monsoon rainfall.

Earlier, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet had also said the 2018 monsoon was expected to be ‘normal’, equal to the LPA, with an error range of five per cent. 

Skymet also said the east and northeast regions, along with parts of southern India, might get slightly below-normal rain. Agriculturally crucial north and central India were expected to get ‘normal to excess’ rain.

IMD would issue a region-wise forecast in June, with its second update.

Meanwhile, IMD is teaming up with Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) to send extreme weather warnings to people, a senior Ministry of Earth Sciences official said.

The move comes after the IMD came under criticism from several quarters, including some state governments for not sending out specific alerts, a charge denied by the weather body, PTI reported.