Monsoon to hit Kerala coast on May 27, quickest in last 5 years: IMD

Timely monsoon rains are critical for India's economy and food supply a time when the country is battling soaring prices.

In what could bring relief to Indians reeling from the intense heat, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said the southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast was expected on May 27, four days ahead of the normal date and the quickest since 2017.

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus four days.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet too said on Friday the rains would reach the Indian mainland on May 26.

Skymet’s prediction is with a model error of plus and minus three days.

Though a good sign, the timely onset of the monsoon does not guarantee strong progress across the country.

However, if the rains arrive on time in the key agricultural states of Central, North and West India, it could spur sowing kharif crops, where acreage this year is expected to be good due to remunerative returns to farmers in the just concluded rabi harvest.

Farm production depends not only on the amount of precipitation but also the timeliness and geographical spread of the monsoon.

Skymet has said the monsoon in the first half of the 2022 season (June and July) is expected to be better than in the second half.

This could have a serious impact on the final harvest of crops because July and August are the most important months in terms of the amount of rain in the four-month southwest monsoon season.

Last month, the IMD predicted the southwest monsoon over the country as a whole in 2022 was expected to be “normal” at 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The LPA for June-September has now been revised at 87 cm, based on the data collected between 1971 and 2020.

Earlier the LPA was 88.1 cm, based on data collected between 1961 and 2010.

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. The monsoon at 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”.

Skymet had said that the southwest monsoon in 2022 was expected to be “normal” at 98 per cent of the LPA. Its forecast too is with an error margin of plus and minus 5 per cent.

The IMD, in its press statement, said La Niña conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and the latest climate models indicated the same might prevail during the monsoon months.

It said currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions were present over the Indian Ocean and the latest forecasts indicated the neutral IOD conditions were likely to continue until the beginning of the southwest monsoon season.

“Thereafter, enhanced probability for negative IOD conditions is predicted,” the IMD said.