Second Covid-19 wave: Traffic drops, power generation gap narrows

Sharp decline in visits to workplace, retail and recreation spots

Key weekly indicators pointed to a decline in economic activity amid a resurgence of Covid-19 cases and regional and local lockdown in crucial states such as Maharashtra.

Traffic congestion dropped in metros and the power generation gap over the pre-pandemic year narrowed.

Business Standard tracks these and other numbers such as mobility, goods carried by the Indian Railways and pollution data on a weekly basis. These help provide a current sense of activity ahead of the official macroeconomic data, which often comes with a lag. Analysts globally have been using similar high-frequency data to get a sense of the situation on the ground during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

All the data is as of Sunday, April 4, except for Google’s mobility data, which is released with a lag. The latest is as of March 31.
 

The excess power generated over 2019 dropped to 5 per cent from 11 per cent in the previous week. This is based on a seven-day rolling average of power generated. The gap had touched over 15.4 per cent towards the end of January when Covid-19 cases were on a downward trend (see chart 1).

The lockdown in Maharashtra hit traffic in Mumbai, the country's commercial and financial capital. Traffic congestion was lower in Mumbai by 56 per cent last week compared to the 2019 level. In New Delhi, traffic was down 41 per cent from 2019 level, according to data from global location technology firm TomTom International (see chart 2).

This is also reflected in lower emissions of nitrogen dioxide. The pollutant comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Delhi emissions were 14 per cent below 2019 levels. Mumbai emissions were, however, higher by 23 per cent on April 4, though these were down earlier in the week (<see chart 3, 4>).

Search engine Google tracks mobility based on anonymised location data. The effect of the surging Covid-19 cases and localised lockdown is clearly visible in the data. There was a sharp decline in visits to retail and recreation spots, transit stations like subways and workplaces with cases rising. However, visits to supermarkets and pharmacies were higher by 20 per cent last week, among the highest since the pandemic began. The data also suggests greater number of visits to or movement around residences (see chart 5).

There was a sharp growth in railway freight loading and freight earnings on-year basis last week due to a favourable base effect. The same week last year saw the first Covid-19 lockdown resulting in a sharp decline in railway traffic (see chart 6).