Skymet dilutes southwest monsoon forecast for 2021 to 'below-normal'

Drought possible in Gujarat and West Rajasthan, says private weather forecaster

With the southwest monsoon all set to enter its final month of the four-month season that started from June, private weather forecasting company Skymet on Monday lowered its 2021 forecast to ‘below normal’, from its earlier forecast of 'normal' monsoon this year at 103 per cent of the long period average (LPA) made in April.

It said there was a possibility of drought in Gujarat and West Rajasthan. For Gujarat, it could have an adverse impact on groundnut and cotton crops.

Skymet, in its latest update, said the southwest monsoon is now expected to be 94 per cent of LPA, with a model error of plus/minus 4 per cent. The LPA of June-September is 880.6 millimetre. LPA is the average rainfall received over a 50-year period between 1951 and 2001. This average comes to 89 centimetres of rainfall.

“Due to weak monsoon conditions, the seasonal rainfall deficit across India has come down to 9 per cent till mid-August. The below-normal monsoon conditions have not improved so far,” said Skymet.

It added that there was a possibility of less rains over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala, and Northeast India in the full season of 2021.

However, some experts say since the sowing of kharif crops is nearly done in several parts of the country and the acreage of most crops is near their 2020 levels, a slippage in monsoon might not have a significant impact on their final yields, except in the case of oilseeds.

“Reservoir levels need to be keenly watched. If water levels drop alarmingly, it might cause disruption in the rabi harvest. Among all crops, oilseeds are the most vulnerable - any sharp drop in acreage will push up its prices,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.

He said the latest sowing data shows that the acreage of cotton and oilseeds has been impacted the most due to erratic monsoon this year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its last policy statement pinned its hopes on the revival of monsoon for keeping food prices in check.

“The revival of the southwest monsoon and a pick-up in kharif sowing, buffered by adequate food stocks, should help contain cereal price pressures in the months to come. High-frequency food price indicators show some moderation in prices of edible oils and pulses in July on the back of supply-side interventions by the government,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das in his statement.

He said inflation may remain close to the upper tolerance band up to Q2:2021-22, but these pressures should ebb in Q3:2021-22 on account of kharif harvest arrivals and supply-side measures kicking in.

The southwest monsoon this year had an early onset and witnessed good rains at the end of June at 110 per cent of LPA. Until July 11, the onset of rains remained weak. The month ended with below-normal rainfall at 93 per cent of LPA. The first break in monsoon appeared in July; the second break was seen in the first fortnight of August.  

The good news is that rainfall in the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh has been substantial so far - this augurs well for pulses.

“The weakening of monsoon is probably due to the prolonged five-phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and extended pause in July and August. However, there is no clarity on the emergence of IOD in September. There is no signal,” said Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh in a statement.

The IOD - often called the 'Indian Niño' because of its similarity to its Pacific equivalent - refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean.