Skymet forecasts normal monsoon

Rain intensity might go down around August; less showers likely In East UP, Bihar, North MP

India’s southwest monsoon in 2013 are likely to be normal at 103 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), but the overall precipitation might dip slightly around August, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather Services said.  “There is an 88 per cent chance of the monsoon being either normal, excess, or above normal this year and a 12 per cent chance of it being deficient,” Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet, said.

LPA is the average rainfall recorded across the country in the last 50 years during the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June. It is estimated to be around 89 cm.  The overall forecast is with an error margin of plus or minus four per cent.

Monsoon rains over 110 per cent of LPA are considered excess, those between 105 and 110 per cent of LPA are regarded above normal, while 95-105 per cent of LPA are considered as normal rains. Rains between 90 and 95 per cent of LPA are considered as below normal, while rainfall below 90 per cent is considered drought.

Skymet has publicly released its annual monsoon forecast for the first time in 10 years, even as the India Meteorological Department gets ready to release its first forecast for 2013 in the last week of April. The private weather forecaster also said that though there is every possibility of rains being normal in 2013, they might be a dip in August.