CRISIL DRIP: Stress is reducing in most crops as rains return in August

Rains have been abundant in most parts of the country even as we move towards the last week of August. June and July saw heavy downpour with some moderation towards the last two weeks. But rains caught up soon after, recording a slightly above  normal reading at 7 per cent over the long period average at the all-India level by August 21.

Region-wise, rains have been most profuse in the south, with four key states — Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh — seeing surplus, and other regions recording ‘normal’ rainfall. In the northwest, rains had turned mildly deficient in July, especially in Rajasthan, but quickly recovered.
 

Healthy and well-spread rains this year bode well for most states and raise hopes of good agricultural performance this year amid the pandemic.

Overall, abundant rains have supported sowing activity. Despite some moderation in recent weeks (expected, given that the total normal area under kharif had already been sown covered this season as of August 21), sowing progress has been healthy, at 8.6% higher on-year. Progress is fastest in rice and oilseeds (12-14% higher on-year). 

The latest DRIP scores indicate some stress for Rajasthan, where given relatively lower irrigation levels, weakness in rainfall for three consecutive weeks pushed the score higher. 
 

For Rajasthan, DRIP scores this year are higher than in 2019 and also above the past five years’ average. 

Madhya Pradesh and Odisha too, saw their scores rise as rains weakened in the interim. But with its picking up strength, DRIP scores have improved. 

As of August 19, the scores for the two states were higher than in 2019 but below the past average.  
 

Similarly, the improvement in rains has helped bring down DRIP scores for soybean and maize over the last two weeks. For these crops, scores are higher than in 2019 but below the past five years’ average. It might be safe to say then, that concerns have, momentarily subsided.  But rainfall developments need constant monitoring. International weather forecasters are seeing a 60% chance of a La Niña weather condition occurring this year.

A La Niña could trigger excess rains similar to 2010 and 2011 when August and September received rainfall in the range of 6 to 13% above the long period average.