Improved monsoon rains boost kharif crop prospects

Overall rainfall was 16 per cent above normal in the week ended Aug 4

Further improvement in the monsoon rainfall, as indicated by the shrinkage of the overall rainfall deficiency to just 1 per cent by August 7, has accelerated kharif planting. The total area brought under the crops is estimated to be higher than last year’s level by good 8.4 per cent.

However, anxiety still endures over the poor rainfall in the eastern region, where the spectre of drought looms large over several districts. Bihar has already declared 28 districts as drought-hit and the situation is no better in many pockets of West Bengal, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. The rainfall deficiency in these areas ranges from 28 per cent to as much as 47 per cent (see chart). The eastern region, as a whole, has clocked 23 per cent rainfall deficiency till August 7.

The sowing of paddy has been adversely hit in many parts of this region, though that of pulses and coarse cereals is reported to be more or less normal, thanks to some sporadic wet spells. The redeeming factor, however, is the weather office’s prediction of widespread rainfall in the northeast till at least August 20, after a relative lull in the first half of this week. That may facilitate paddy transplanting in the areas where the seedlings have managed to survive and direct seeding of crop in other areas.

The overall rainfall in the whole country was 16 per cent above normal in the week ended August 4. This, together with an even better downpour of 38 per cent above normal in the previous week, has resulted in a spectacular improvement in the water stock in reservoirs. The earlier misgivings about the availability of water for irrigation and hydel power production in the post-monsoon period are, more or less, over now.

According to the Central Water Commission, the total water storage in the 81 major reservoirs stood at 52.09 billion cubic metres (BCM) on August 5, against a discomforting 28.65 BCM a fortnight ago, on July 22. The present storage is a mere 6 per cent short of normal, against 35 per cent a fortnight ago.

However, the water balance is still worrisome in reservoirs in the eastern region where the monsoon is yet to pick up full momentum. The water stock is below normal by 24 per cent in the dams in Jharkhand, 19 per cent in Orissa, 30 per cent in Tripura and 74 per cent in West Bengal.

Nevertheless, the overall kharif prospects remain bullish as 85 per cent of the country’s total area has received normal or above normal rainfall. The latest information with Krishi Bhawan indicates that kharif crops have been seeded on 82.6 million hectares till August 5 this year, which is 5.5 million hectares, or 8.4 per cent, more than last year’s corresponding level of 76.23 million hectares.

The area coverage is more than last year in the case of all crops, including rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and jute. The crop stand is reported to be good and so far there has been no report of any major attack of disease or pests. Though white fly pest has appeared on cotton in some pockets of Punjab and Rajasthan, but the incidence is below the threshold level till now in most cases.

Paddy, the main kharif staple cereal, has reportedly been sown on 24.48 million hectares, against 2,257 million hectares in the last season, marking an increase of 8.5 per cent. The sowing is still in progress. The farmers have been cautioned by the agriculture experts to remain watchful about the appearance of bacterial blight disease. This infection is carried by water from one field to another.
 

THE UNEQUAL PICTURE
CUMULATIVE MONSOON RAINFALL (AREA WEIGHTED) IN DIFFERENT REGIONS TILL AUG 7 (IN MILLIMETRES)
Region	Actual	Normal	% Difference
Northwest	346.1	338.0	2
Central India	614.8	575.7	7
South Peninsula	480.7	425.1	13
East & Northeast	677.5	876.8	-23
All-India	515.9	521.0	-1
RAINFALL IN DEFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONS IN EAST
Assam & Meghalaya	896.1	1272.3	-30
Gangetic W. Bengal	462.2	644.0	-28
Jharkhand	321.6	606.1	-47
Bihar	415.9	577.0	-28
East UP	291.2	481.8	-40
Source: India Meteorological Department

Pulses have been grown on 8.83 million hectares, some 1.18 million hectares, or 15.5 per cent, more than last year’s corresponding coverage. The farmers are upbeat on pulses cultivation this year in anticipation of good returns because of the high ruling prices. The well-spaced rainfall has helped sowing.

The planting of oilseeds, which was lagging behind last year’s level in the initial stages because of the delayed onset of the monsoon in several soyabean growing areas, has picked up. The total area coverage is now estimated at 15.3 million hectares, against 15 million hectares last season.

Sugarcane and cotton have also gained substantially in area this year thanks to high prices. However, the government’s long-awaited decision on the import and export of sugar and cotton will determine the price movements in these commodities.