India's gas demand to double by 2017

India’s natural gas demand is likely to more than double to 473 million standard cubic metres per day by 2016-17 with most of incremental demand coming from power plants.

According to the projections made by oil ministry for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17), current gas demand of 189 mmscmd is likely to rise to 473 mmscmd.

“The overall demand would grow from 293 mmscmd (in 2012-13) to 473 mmscmd (in 2016-17) over the 12th plan period and from 494 mmscmd (in 2017-18) to 606 mmscmd (in 2021-22) over the 13th plan period,” according to the projections.

“This represents a compounded annual growth rate of 7.5 per cent over the two plan (10 year) periods," it said.

Of the 473 mmscmd demand at the end of 12th Five Year Plan period, 207 mmscmd would be from power and another 113 mmscmd from fertilizer plants. Power plant would need 307 mmscmd by 2021-22 while fertiliser units may not see any incremental demand during 2017 to 2022.

Domestic natural gas production currently is about 120 mmscmd and another 46.3 mmscmd is imported in form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The total availability of 164 mmscmd is short of current demand of 189 mmscmd.

State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) produces under 51 mmscmd of gas while output from the prolofic KG-D6 fields of Reliance Industries is about 45 mmscmd. Oil India produces 6.6 mmscmd and another 11.9 mmscmd comes from western offshore Panna/Mukta and Tapti fields.

Of the current supplies, 61.4 mmscmd goes to power sector while fertiliser plants consume 37.7 mmscmd. The remaining is used by city gas projects, refineries, petrochemical plants and sponge iron units.

While KG-D6 gas is priced at $4.20 per million British thermal unit, PMT gas is priced at $5.57-5.73 per mmBtu. ONGC sells gas to priority sector at $4.2 per mmBtu and to non-priority sector at $4.2-5.25 per mmBtu. LNG is priced at $8.4-16 per mmBtu.

According to the projections, domestic gas ouptu would rise to 210 mmscmd by 2016-17 with ONGC's gas production rising to 92 mmsmcd. Private firms including Reliance would produce 107 mmscmd.

LNG imports are projected to rise to 258 mmscmd. The incremental imports would come from Petronet LNG Ltd's currently operational Dahej terminal in Gujarat being expanded to 15 million tons from current 10 million tons and its 5 million tons a year facilities each coming up at Kochi in Kerala and east coast.

New terminals are envisaged at Ennore in Tamil Nadu and Mundra in Gujarat while Royal Dutch Shell's Hazira terminal in Gujarat is projected to be expanded to 10 million tons from current 3.6 million tons.