MP posts robust growth in 2008-11

One part of the story is a bit old, but most interesting, nonetheless. Madhya Pradesh recorded an impressive 12.37 per cent growth rate against estimates of 8.67 per cent in 2008-09, weathering adverse conditions like insufficient rains, frost, constant decline in productivity besides poor data collection system.

One, though, isn’t yet sure if it is more of a jugglery of data that has lent handsomeness to the report card. For, the state government has yet to release the micro-level details.

Sources in the state’s statistics department, while informing this to Business Standard, recalled that the growth rate was only three per cent in 2004-05 when the BJP assumed power. During 2009-11, the growth rate stood at 9.55 per cent in the face of drought-like conditions, given that, according to the data, the central Indian state received 35 per cent less rains than normal.More interestingly, Madhya Pradesh excelled again 2010-11 and posted figures of 9 per cent—again despite drought-like conditions in various districts, this time the average rainfall was 26 per cent less than normal rains and the winter was defined by intense frost-like conditions during January 2011.

“We lost tur crop by 36.1 per cent despite a 48.2 per cent growth in acreage,” said a senior official in state statistics department. “Similarly, gram (chana) production declined by 16.6 per cent even amid a 3.3 per cent rice in its acreage. The flaxseed production, too, declined by 13.2 per cent against a 16.4 per cent increase in the acreage.”

Adverse climatic conditions also failed to decelerate the state’s agriculture growth; Madhya Pradesh posted a double-digit growth during 2008-09 and 2009-10 at 10.2 per cent and 10.5 per cent. In 2010-11, it was 7.2 per cent. Industrial sector posted a rise of 17.3 per cent, 7.7 percent and 10.1 per cent respectively during the three years from 2008.

For the record, the data collection system is based on the national average. For example, the state statistical department estimates its growth rate of the industrial sector on the basis of an all-India index of industrial production. “As a result,” said a top insider in state statistical department, “the data may vary from what is projected by state government in real terms.”

Further, the agriculture data collection system is based on guesstimates -- and not on actual data collection. “In some cases, the state department of statistics posts average data by using national data as base,” he added. Nationally, Madhya Pradesh secured second -- after Bihar -- in terms of the states that have posted the highest growth rate in 2008-09, and third in 2009-10 -- after neighbouring Orissa and Chhattisgarh.