Rainfall normal, but oilseed areas a worry: CRISIL's DRIP index

CRISIL's DRIP scores show stress for 4 states, crops

The south-west monsoon began with a delay of two days — hitting the coast of Kerala on June 3, instead the regular June 1 arrival — and then gathered pace. Through most of June, it was bountiful. At the end of the month, rainfall was adjudged 10 per cent above normal, with healthy spatial distribution. All four southwest monsoon catchment regions — south, northwest, east, and northeast and central — saw copious downpour.

Then came the dry spells in some pockets. Consequently, the first round of southwest monsoon covered all of India with a lag of five days — on July 13, instead of the scheduled July 8. Last year, it had done so by June 26,  a good 12 days in advance.

As of July 18, all-India cumulative rainfall was 8 per cent below normal. Region-wise, it was 21 per cent below normal in the north-west, 12 per cent below normal in the east and the northeast, and 11 per cent below normal in central India. The southern peninsula, on the other hand, received 19 per cent above-normal rains.

The northwest, which accounts for 43.7 per cent of India’s food grains production, is seeing the maximum shortfall. In fact, there is greater stress among some states when one goes a layer below the regional rainfall statistics. In the northwest — among the major kharif producers — Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana have seen deficient rainfall so far at 35 per cent, 27 per cent, and 22 per cent below normal, respectively. In central India, Gujarat, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh have logged 39 per cent, 27 per cent and 25 per cent below normal, respectively.

Such spatial deficiency has implications for kharif sowing for which, abundant rains in the initial months of the south-west monsoon season are crucial. For the week ended July 16, sowing area under kharif was 80 per cent and 25 per cent lower on-season and also by normal area sown (or the average of the past five years), respectively. But state-level rainfall volume data alone does not tell the story. There are vulnerabilities that arise from inadequate irrigation.

CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) provides a better impact assessment of deficiency because it factors in the irrigation buffer available for states and crops. Typically, higher the DRIP score, more adverse is the impact of deficient rains. 

The latest DRIP scores — as of July 14 – are higher for Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha not only in absolute terms, but also on on-year and last five-year average bases.