Recovery tracker: Key indicators take a dip during Diwali

Power generation, traffic congestion decline in the latest week

Weekly indicators of economic activity showed a declining trend for the latest week amid multiple holidays around Diwali.

The government Diwali holiday was on Thursday, November 4. There were also holidays on the next two days for Govardhan Puja and Bhai Duj. Power generation, freight, traffic and mobility indicators all showed a dip for the latest week.

The power generation decline was especially sharp after the end of Diwali. The weekly average generation was 9 per cent lower on a week-on-week basis and lowest during the current calendar year so far. The power utilities across the country generated 3293 million units (MUs) of electricity on average per day during the week ended November 7, 2021 based on reporting day data, down from 3620 MUs a week ago. It was 5 per cent higher than corresponding week in 2019 but 6.2 per cent lower than generation in corresponding week in 2020 (see chart 1).

The Indian Railways showed 4 per cent growth in quantity of goods carried compared to 11.6 per cent seen in the previous week. Earnings from the goods carried, or freight revenue, was 13.4 per cent compared to 20.2 per cent seen in the previous week (see chart 2).

There was less traffic on the road in major cities. Mumbai traffic was 44 per cent below normal, showed data from global location technology firm TomTom International. It was down 23 per cent in the previous week.  New Delhi traffic was down 34 per cent compared to 10 per cent in the previous week (see chart 3).

There has been a 59.1 per cent increase in shopping for essentials, suggests mobility data from search engine Google. The data is released with a lag. The latest is as of November 4. These grocery and pharmacy visits are now at their highest since Google began collecting mobility numbers based on anonymised location data in 2020.  Workplace visits were down nine per cent, after having reached pre-Covid levels around the beginning of the month (see chart 4).

Nitrogen dioxide comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Mumbai emissions continued to be muted based on Bandra locality data. Delhi emissions were up 17 per cent (see chart 5,6).

Business Standard tracks these indicators on a weekly basis to get a current picture of the economic recovery. Official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators to get a sense of the economic situation on the ground as different countries imposed restrictions to control the Covid-19 pandemic. Google data is released with a lag. The latest is as of November 4. All other data is as of Sunday, 7th November.