Recovery tracker: Power generation rises, workplace visits up as cases drop

Freight numbers, traffic congestion lower than before

Weekly indicators of economic activity showed a mixed trend for the latest week even as Covid-19 cases declined.

Some indicators like electricity generation did better than before, while freight numbers showed lower growth. The seven-day moving average of Covid-19 cases dropped 22.1 per cent to 22,287 on Sunday according to independent tracker covid19india.org.

Power generation showed gains over the corresponding week in the 2019 and 2020 calendar year, though it was down last week compared to the previous week. Power utilities across the country generated over 3,800 million units of electricity on average per day during the week ending October 3, down 2-3 per cent from over 3,900 million units a week ago. The number was, however, around two per cent higher than electricity generation in the corresponding week in 2020 and around 18 per cent over 2019. The numbers reflect the sharp fall in electricity generation during this period in 2019 (see chart 1).

More people went to work than before. Workplace visits are tracked by search engine Google uses anonymised location data, along with activities like retail and recreation visits. The data is released with a lag. The latest is as of September 28. Workplace visits are now at 93.7 per cent of pre-Covid levels (see chart 2).

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. It comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Higher levels could point to more economic activity. Delhi emissions were down seven per cent from the same period in 2019. Mumbai emissions, based on Bandra locality data, is down 45 per cent (see chart 3,4).

Traffic congestion dipped in major cities showed data from global location technology firm TomTom International. Mumbai traffic congestion was 27 per cent lower than the corresponding weekly congestion from 2019. It was down 22 per cent in New Delhi. This is worse than the previous week. Congestion had been down 17 per cent in both places then (see chart 5).

The growth in the quantity of goods that the Indian Railways carried fell during the week. It was 4.9 in the previous week, and came in at 0.9 per cent for the week ending Sunday, 3rd October.  Growth in freight revenues fell from 10.3 per cent to 5.5 per cent (see chart 6).

Business Standard tracks these indicators as a means of getting a current picture of the economy. Official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries took steps to control the Covid-19 pandemic.  Google data is released with a lag, and the latest is as of September 28. All other data is as of Sunday, October 3.