StatsGuru-14-July-14

Decoding the Budget's revenue & expenditure numbers

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The recently presented Union Budget has made some optimistic revenue and expenditure forecasts. As Table 1 shows, it expects that revenue receipts will increase slightly as a percentage of GDP, and total expenditure will decrease. In particular, as Table 2 shows, it expects a big revival in Plan expenditure, with 21 per cent growth year-on-year. It expects capital expenditure to grow similarly - as Table 3 shows, capital expenditure has been particularly volatile in the past few years.

Gross tax revenue is expected to grow 17.7 per cent, according to Table 4, the most since 2010-11. The big growth push to tax revenue will come, as Table 5 shows, from continued high growth in service tax. Direct taxes are projected to grow at 15.8 per cent, according to Table 6 - again optimistic, bettered since the crisis only by the stimulus year of 2010-11. But the really optimistic figure is indirect tax growth, as seen in Table 7.