Recovery under a cloud

Monsoon scare: Govt says rains are likely to be lower than normal.

Monsoon rains, which are crucial for the standing kharif crops, are forecast to be lower than normal. The government said today that this year’s monsoon rainfall would be 93 per cent of the long-term average, lower than an earlier forecast of 96 per cent.

“Rainfall is likely to be below normal,” Prithviraj Chavan, minister of state for science and technology, said at a press conference in New Delhi. “The situation is still not worrisome."

Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93 per cent of the long period average with a model error of ±4 per cent, according to a government release. This means rainfall could either slip further to 89 per cent or improve to 97 per cent.

The southwest monsoon, which had brought cheer to the farming community due to its early onset on May 23, stopped in its tracks over the Konkan region of Maharashtra on June 7.

As on June 19, the country had received just over 50 per cent of the normal rainfall this season. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 28 reported deficient or scanty rainfall, while eight received excess or normal rains. Under normal conditions, the monsoon should have reached Mumbai by June 10 and covered all of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh by June 15.

The Union agriculture ministry, however, is of the view that it is too early to say if the lower forecast would affect the agricultural output. “If the rains are well distributed, even with less rain we can achieve a normal crop output,” said N B Singh, agriculture commissioner in the Union ministry.

About 60 per cent of the country’s total cultivable area of 140 million hectares is rain fed, while the rest is irrigated.

Although the farm sector accounts for less than 20 per cent of the gross domestic product, it supports 60 per cent of the country's population.

Poor rains could lower farm output, raise food prices further, and dent rural demand. That may hurt corporate profitability and undermine sentiment in financial markets.

However, dismissing apprehensions of any spurt in foodgrain prices on account of poor monsoon, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council today said the country had enough stock to deal with the situation.

The major kharif crops are paddy, jowar, bajra, maize, cotton, groundnut, soyabean, arhar, urad, moong and sugarcane.