A point-by-point comparison of the BJP and Congress 2019 poll manifestos

While neither displays an overarching economic theme, Congress is more welfare-centric, and BJP has fresh ideas instead seeking to continue economic themes launched during its term in office

The tone of the BJP and Congress manifestoes are strikingly different not just politically but also in their approach to economic issues. While neither displays an overarching economic theme, the Congress manifesto is more focused on welfare than on growth issues. The BJP paper has a few fresh ideas instead seeking to continue the economic themes it has launched during its term in office. We piece together their approach on key economic issues facing the country and how much money those would cost, and more importantly, how well they are targeted at the electorate.

Agriculture and rural development 

BJP

Proposal: In a significant move, the BJP has proposed to extend the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana (PM-KISAN) to all farmers rather than just those owning upto 2 hectares. It has also proposed to provide short term agricultural loans up to Rs 1 lakh at zero per cent interest rate for 1-5 years. 

Impact: In the 2019-20 interim budget, the then finance minister Piyush Goyal had launched PM-KISAN under which landholding farmer families with cultivable land of up to 2 hectares would be provided a direct income support of Rs 6,000 per year. For 2019-20, the government had allocated Rs 75,000 crore for this scheme. 

Extending this to all farmers is likely to entail an additional burden of roughly Rs 12,000 crore, taking the total outlay of the scheme to around Rs 87,000 crore. As the scheme would be extended to all farmer households, the move would also do away with problems of identifying farmer households with less than 2 hectares of land. It would thus do away with problems of inclusion and exclusion associated with targeting. But whether this helps sway the electorate is debatable. 

On the issue of interest subvention, the centre was expected to spend Rs 15,000 crore in 2018-19 so that farmers could avail credit at lower interest rates. Conversations with experts suggest that if farmers are to be provided short-term agricultural loans up to Rs one lakh at zero per cent interest, then the subsidy amount might have to be scaled up to Rs 28,000 crore. 

Proposal: The BJP has also promised to ensure a pucca house to every family currently living either in a kuchha house or having no access to housing, by 2022 along with a piped water connection to every household by 2024.

Impact: Under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana–Gramin (PMAY-G), the NDA government has already promised to build 10 million houses over a three-year period from 2016-17 to 2018-19. According to data submitted in the parliament, 10.8 million houses were constructed as on January 31, 2019. However, this number also includes houses constructed under the erstwhile Indira Awaas Yojana (IAY) -– the scheme which was restructured into PMAY-G. Since 2015-16, around Rs 80,560 crore has been released by the centre (including loans from Nabard) for house construction under this scheme. 

Congress

Proposal: The party promises to increase the guaranteed days of employment under MNREGA to 150 days in cases where 100 days have been achieved in a block/district. 

Impact: At a time of rural distress, this proposal could put more cash in the hands of rural households. But its impact on government finances is difficult to discern. Data shows the average days of employment provided per household stood at roughly 51 in 2018-19 and around 5.1 million households had completed 100 days of wage employment under the scheme. 

Proposal: It also promises to waive outstanding farm loans, repeal the Agricultural Produce Market Committees Act and formulate a policy for export and import of agricultural products. 

Impact: A nationwide farm loan waiver will undoubtedly be welcomed by farmers. But given its fiscal implications, it is difficult to see how such a blanket waiver can be implemented especially as the Congress party has pledged to stick to the target of three per cent of GDP by 2020-21, bringing it down from 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2018-19. Repealing the APMC act also seems difficult as the experience of various governments has shown over the years. 

Manufacturing 

BJP 

Proposal: The BJP hopes to improve the country’s ease of doing business ranking further. It has also proposed a new industrial policy to improve competitiveness of manufacturing and services. It also hopes to use public procurement and government incentives to build manufacturing clusters in order to build competitiveness in cutting edge industries.

The party’s focus is more on the services sector, especially retail with plans to set up a national board for traders, offer pension to them post 60 years of age and accident insurance.

Impact: Despite India’s impressive score on the ease of doing business, it hasn’t translated to greater private or foreign investment in the recent past. Whether a new industrial policy can help improve competitiveness is debatable. The sops for the retail sector is sure to add to the fiscal burden on the centre besides creating another possibility of extension of government oversight on them. 

Congress

Proposal: The Congress party hopes to increase the share of manufacturing sector in GDP to 25 per cent within five years, up from 16 per cent today. It hopes to do this by setting up new industrial towns, enact policies for critical sectors, revive stalled projects and review the discretionary powers of tax authorities. One of their key plans is to develop export zones, a plan they had discarded in 2009.

Impact: Their pet theme “Make for the world” needs tax sops to materialise, which is a difficult call for the new government. Integration into the global value-added chain would need flexibility in the country’s trading position at the WTO, some thing both parties are unwilling to concede.  

Infrastructure

BJP 

Proposal: The party wants aggregate investment in the economy to reach Rs 100,000 trillion by 2024, from the current Rs 9.5 trillion. As part of this, daily road construction is expected to reach 32 km, along with modernisation of the railways, setting up of warehouse zones along national highways and opening up of the skies to affordable flights and more airports beyond the present 101. It also plans to integrate all water policies under one omnibus ministry.

Congress 

Proposal: The party plans to move from LPG in rural areas to electricity, on and off grid in a big way. In banking its plan includes promoting development banks to provide long-term credit for infrastructure projects. Plus it plans to review governance structure of public sector banks and abolish Bank Boards Bureau.  

Jobs

BJP 

Proposal: The party mentions jobs just thrice in its manifesto. The references are in the context of pushing up investment in the economy which in turn would generate jobs. The other is the declaration by the party to reserve 10 per cent of jobs in government for the economically weaker sections.

Impact: the manifesto makes it clear that it is unwilling to join issue on job losses with the Congress or other parties. BJP is sanguine that the revival of growth it has engineered has created and will continue to generate jobs. So, the debate is not on.

Congress

Proposal: For the party this is the key issue straddling the manifesto. It has promised to fill up all government vacancies, not just at the centre, but also at the states which it estimates at 2.4 million. This is expected to be completed by March 2020 at the centre and soon thereafter in states.

Impact: The total central government civilian employee strength is only 3.2 million. This is therefore a massive promise that looks very difficult. Vacancies in existing posts get filled only as per an annual calendar. But given the attractive numbers, those can create a strong groundswell.

Party	Proposal	Impact On voters	On Govt	On Economy	Overall Assessment
Agriculture
BJP	Extend PM Kisan to all farmers	More people covered	Additional funds Rs 12,000 cr over Rs 75,000 cr committed	Doesn't add to growth	(-)
	Short-term farm loans up to Rs 1 lakh at 0%	All farmers	Additional funds of Rs 28,000 cr	Adds to acreage & could dampen move out of agriculture	(+)
Congress

Farm loan waiver Farmers taking out loans Rs 4 trillion Pressure on banks to write off; need more state support (-) Rework Fasal Bima Yojana All farmers States have paid out Rs 25,046 crore in FY18 Wider coverage on no profit-no loss means less interest from firms & more on states (-) Rural Development BJP Pucca house with piped water supply by 2022  Impacts about 5.4 million households BJP Would need another Rs 40,000 crore  Adds to investment (+) Congress Extend MGNREGA to 150 days Impacts all small famers & agricultural labourers Needs Rs 60,000 crore more  Adds to consumption spurring demand (+) Manufacturing & Trade BJP New industrial policy to improve competitiveness of manufacturing & services Unclear impact unless added with details Tax reliefs could be difficult Adds to employment (+) Expand credit guarantee scheme for MSME to Rs 1 lakh crore Positive for small biz Liability to increase five times to Rs 1,800 cr Mixed results since past interventions have not been successful (-) Accident insurance for small traders & policy for retail trade Positive for small biz Liability could be about Rs 5,000 crore. Other sectors could also demand Credit positive for insurance companies (mixed) Congress Make for the world—export zone policy No clear target Tax reliefs like for SEZs could be difficult Without promise of land acquisition will be difficult (-) Infrastructure BJP Combined ministry of water No clear target Better monitoring of schemes and so reduce costs Execution difficult without involving states   Road building target raised to 32 km per day. Bharatmala 2 Urban voters No additional liability on govt Viable since there is experience (+) Congress Review natural resources policy Mining areas Change government policies for the sectors Could help mining sector  (+) Move from LPG to electricity as preferred fuel Millenials Change in government policies Add to demand for renewables (+)

Jobs

BJP

Deepen public & private infrastructure creation to build jobs Huge planned rise in capex No clear target No adverse impact Additional investment can raise growth rate (+) Congress 400,000 government vacancies to be filled Young voters Sharp rise in government wage bill—hit fiscal deficit Create additional consumption (+) Ministry of industry, services and employment Young voters Adds to layers in government Doesn't add to growth (-)