AIADMK Govt to survive, but DMK sweeps LS, wins majority seats in bypolls

Chief Minister Edapaddi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK government can breathe a sigh of relief as his party won eight seats and leading in one, out of the 22 assembly seats in the by-polls, which could help it survive with a majority on the floor even though Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won 11 seats and was leading in two seats. This was the trend as of 8.30 a.m. on Friday, according to Election Commission of India.

While this is a good news for the ruling faction, the disappointment was the poor performance of the party and its alliance partners including Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Lok Sabha election in the state. It was a clear sweep by DMK-Congress alliance which was leading in Lok Sabha seats. 

AIADMK won one Lok Sabha seats, while DMK and its alliance bagged the rest. DMK alone won 23 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Tamil Nadu bypolls and Lok Sabha elections in 2019 are closely watched for two reasons. All the main parties – AIADMK, DMK, AMMA and MNM -- went for election under new leadership, and for many of them the elections were the acid test. The second most important, the bypoll outcome will decide the fate of the ruling AIADMK Government.

First half of Thursday was nail biting moments for AIADMK and DMK cadres. The day started with DMK leading in many of the places, by 11 a.m. It became equal, 11:11 and then it came down to 12:8 (DMK:AIADMK) before settling down to 13:9 in the evening.

With 113 MLAs excluding the Assembly Speaker, the AIADMK need four seats, along with retaining a few disgruntled MLAs to cross the half-way mark of 117 in a house of 234. By bagging nine seats, the ruling faction is now safe as the number is expected to reach 124 which may help them to complete the term, which is ending in 2021.

S Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political expert and commentator said that AIADMK has worked tireless to save the government and they were successful in doing so in this bye-election. "There was only two possibilities - either Edappadi or election. With the results, it shows that Edappadi may be able to continue,"he said.  DMK-led alliance has 97 MLAs in the Assembly, including eight from the Congress and one from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)

Political analysts have said that AIADMK MLAs may not be willing to switch their allegiance to the DMK, which will help Palaniswami to complete its term. However, the challenge for Palaniswami is to ensure that none of the MLAs move out anymore.

AIADMK rebel leader T T V Dhinakaran floated AMMK and managed to split the votes of AIADMK and was able to garner critical votes in constituencies like Sathur and Thiruparankundram, and managed to be in third position in many of these Assembly constituencies, but the party could not win one seat in the Bypolls and in Lok Sabha seats. 

It is also a similar case for Kamal Hassan's Makkal Nidhi Maiyam (MNM), which made its debut in this election. None of the MNM candidates won in the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats though it has bagged significant votes in the Lok Sabha constituencies like Coimbatore.

What would be the future of these two leaders one need to wait and watch. While for Stalin the next 2.5 years will be crucial and he may have to strengthen his base to face Assembly 2021.

Commenting on the majority gained by DMK alliance in the Parliamentary seats till evening, Duraisamy said that as the 37 MPs of Jayalalithaa could not do anything in the Parliament, the MPs  whom Stalin sending may also not be able to do anything there.

Interestingly, the leaders who were in the middle of 2G scam allegations in the past, including Dayanidhi Maran,  Kanimozhi and A Raja have seen winning their respective seats with ease. 

Former Union Minister P Chidambaram's son Karti Chidambaram has won in Sivaganga constituency, while Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Pannerselvam's son O P Ravindranath Kumar became one of the few AIADMK candidates in the State, to win from Theni Parliamentary constituency, against seasoned Congress leader EVKS Elangovan. Union Minister of State for Finance and Shipping Pon Radhakrishnan is trailing in Kanyakumari Parliamentary Constituency against Congress leader H Vasanthakumar. BJP, which had one seat through Pon Radhakrishnan, has no lead in the Parliamentary constituencies during this election.