Assembly polls: Where the Modi magic works for BJP and where it doesn't

The Prime Minister's persona seems to work more in states where the BJP wasn't in power prior to elections, but struggles with anti-incumbency in those where it has been ruling

The Rajasthan unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is waiting with bated breath for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to begin his election campaign later this week in the poll-bound state. BJP sources say party candidates are keen to have Adityanath address public rallies in their respective constituencies.

The UP chief minister, according to the party’s feedback from the ground, is the new Hindu Hridaya Samrat, or the emperor of Hindu hearts, among the Sangh Parivar’s core supporters in the state. Adityanath could address nearly two dozen public rallies over the next 10-days in Rajasthan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, known to put his heart and sinew in campaigning for his party, and famed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, is yet to begin his campaign in Rajasthan -– a state the BJP is least confident of winning among the three poll-bound north Indian states.

BJP sources in Jaipur said Modi would head to Rajasthan once the poll campaign for Madhya Pradesh ends on November 26. Polling in Madhya Pradesh is on November 28 and on December 7 in Rajasthan. Modi can then devote nine days exclusively for campaigning in Rajasthan, where the BJP is facing severe anti-incumbency.

However, even in the other two poll-bound states – Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – the PM has not followed as punishing a schedule during the current round of assembly elections as he did in the campaigns in Gujarat at the end of 2017, or even in Karnataka this summer.

The PM’s international commitments have also come in the way. He had to attend the East Asia Summit in Singapore on November 14 and 15, and the oath taking ceremony of the president-elect of the Maldives on November 17.

For the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly polls, the PM could address a total of 11 public meetings by November 26. He has already addressed six, in Gwalior, Shahdol, Indore, Jhabua, Rewa and Chhindwara.

For the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly polls, the PM addressed four public rallies. The voting, held in two phases, concluded on November 20. The PM’s public meetings were in Ambikapur, Jagdalpur, Mahasamund and Bilaspur.

In both, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP is facing a 15-year long anti-incumbency, and poll surveys suggest the fight is tough.

In stark contrast, for the 182-seat Gujarat assembly polls last year, the PM addressed 34 rallies in 15 days -– from November 27 to December 11, 2017. The PM was keen to protect his home turf and in that duration he also led several road shows, visited temples and had his famous landing in a seaplane on the Sabarmati River. The BJP, which has been in government in the state since 1995, managed to hold on to a slim majority in the assembly.

For the 224-seat Karnataka assembly polls in May this year, Modi addressed 17 public rallies. The BJP emerged the single largest party, but failed to dislodge incumbent Congress from the government as a simple majority eluded it. The Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) formed a coalition government.

The exception of the Gujarat assembly poll aside, the ‘Modi magic’ has been more visible in assembly polls where the BJP has not been the incumbent. It has also failed to work wonders for the BJP when Modi has been faced with a credible local leader.

However, in the Bihar assembly polls in October-November 2015, the PM addressed a staggering 34 rallies. It could get 53 seats in the 243-member assembly, behind Rashtriya Janata Dal’s 81 and Janata Dal (United)’s 70.

Earlier that year, in February 2015, the BJP suffered a massive defeat in the Delhi assembly polls. It could win only three seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly, as the city-state elected the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party. The PM addressed four rallies in the run up to the polls.

In the aftermath of the 2014 assembly polls, the PM addressed dozen of rallies in the first set of assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra. In Haryana, the BJP defeated the 10-year-old Congress government. It won an unprecedented 47 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly.

In Maharashtra, the BJP emerged the single largest party, unseating the 15-year-old Congress-Nationalist Congress Party government. The Modi ‘magic’ worked in Jharkhand as well later that year, with the BJP winning a simple majority.

Year 2015 proved the so-called Modi ‘magic’ had its limitations. The BJP fared poorly in Delhi and Bihar, with people of these two states preferring Kejriwal and Nitish Kumar, respectively.

However, in the beginning of the 2016, the BJP ended 15 years of Congress rule in Assam. Modi and BJP failed to make any dramatic impact in terms of winning any significant number of seats in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and West Bengal assembly polls.

Year 2017 yet again proved Modi could weave magic in states where BJP has not been in power. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP-led alliance won a famous victory. The last time the state had a BJP government was in 2002, and has since oscillated between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The Congress emerged the single largest party in Goa, but BJP formed the government with help from smaller parties.

The Congress came close to retaining Manipur but fell short and BJP, the runners up in the seats tally, formed the government with help from smaller parties. Anti-incumbency against the Congress in Uttarakhand helped the BJP form the government in the hill state. But Modi couldn't help the party retain Punjab. The Congress ended the 10-year-old rule of the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP coalition in that state.

At the end of 2017, the BJP replaced the Congress in Himachal Pradesh. Modi ‘magic’ was evident in Gujarat assembly polls, as the PM nearly single-handedly secured a win for his party.

In the assembly elections in Tripura in the beginning of 2018, the BJP ended the Left Front’s 25-year rule.

Similarly, Modi brought his party close to a win and end Congress rule in Karnataka. The BJP emerged the single largest party in that state.

However, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh results would be interesting to watch. The BJP faces anti-incumbency in all three states. Would Modi get credit for a BJP win in these three states? Or would the wins be the success of party’s regional satraps -- Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh?

How Modi magic has worked more in states that weren't BJP-ruled
State	Poll campaign	Total seats	Incumbent	BJP’s performance
Haryana	October 2014	90	Congress	Majority
Maharashtra

October 2014 288 Cong-NCP Single largest party Jharkhand December 2014 87 JMM-Cong Majority J&K December 2014 81 National Conference/Central rule Second spot Delhi Jan-Feb 2015 70 Central rule 3/70 seats Bihar Oct-Nov 2015 243 JD(U) Third spot Assam April-May 2016 126 Cong Majority Tamil Nadu April-May 2016 234 AIADMK Zero seats