Karnataka election 2018: What exit polls can't settle, May 15 will; updates

All eyes are on Karnataka election exit polls. Know whether BJP, Congress and JD(S) have been able to make an impact on voters. Track LIVE updates on exit polls on Business Standard

Exit polls on Saturday after the Karnataka assembly election predicted a hung assembly in the state with six surveys showing BJP as the single largest party and the three showing Congress in the lead.

In the tightly-fought election, the poll of exit polls predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may get 99 seats, the Congress 88 and the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) 33.

Surveys varied in their predictions for seats for the three parties but the figures clearly indicated that the JD-S could have a decisive role in government formation.

Only the average of seats predicted by two surveys showed any party reaching halfway mark - and one survey predicted this for the Congress, another predicted it for the BJP.

Exit polls were telecast after the end of polling in Karnataka. The results will be declared on May 15.

Polling was held on 222 of 224 seats with election on two seats having been countermanded.

The ABP C Voter predicted 107 seats for the BJP, 88 for the Congress, 25 for the JD-S and four for others, while India Today-Axis predicted the BJP getting 85, the Congress 112, the JD-S 26 and others one.

Times Now VMR predicted the BJP getting 86, the Congress 96, JD-S 35 and others 3 while Republic TV-Jan ki bat predicted 104 seat for the BJP, 77 for the Congress, 37 for the JD-S and two for others.

News X-CNX predicted 106 seats for the BJP, 75 for the Congress, 37 for the JD-S and four for others.

The India TV-VMR exit poll said the ruling Congress could get 97 seats, (in a range of 90 to 103 seats), the BJP 87 seats (in a range of 80-93 seats), and the JDS-BSP alliance could get a decisive role in government formation with 35 seats (in a 31-39 seat range). 'Others', that includes independents, could win only three seats, it said.

Results for the Karnataka assembly elections will be declared on May 15, with BJP and Congress both claiming they will get over 130 seats in the election.

The predictions by various surveys:

India Today-Axis My India - BJP 79-92, Congress 106-118, JD-S 22-30, Others 0

Times Now-VMR - BJP 80-93, Congress 90-103, JD-S 31-39, Others 2-4

News X-CNX - BJP 102-110, Congress 72-78, JD-S 35-39, Others 3-5

Republic TV-Jan ki baat - BJP 95-114, Congress 73-82, JD-S 32-43, Others 2-3

ABP News-C Voter - BJP 101-113, Congress 82-94, JD-S 18-31, Others 1-8

Dighvijay News - BJP 103-107, Congress 76-80, JD-S 31-35, Others 4-8

NewsNation - BJP 105-109, Congress 71-75, JD-S 36-40, Ohters 3-5

India TV-C Voter - BJP 87, Congress 97, JD-S 35, Others 3

Today's Chanakya gave BJP 120 (plus minus 11 seats), Congress 73 (plus, minus 11 seats), JD-S 26 (plus, minus seven) and others 3 (plus, minus 3 seats)

Here are updates on Karnataka exit polls 2018 and Karnataka Assembly Election 2018

1. Chanakya Exit polls indicated a clear victory for BJP (120 seats), followed by Congress with 73 seats and JD(S) 26.

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll data indicates 106-118 seats for Congress, BJP 79-92, followed by JD(S) with 22-30 seats.

Meanwhile, TIMES NOW-VMR Exit Poll data indicates a hung Assembly with BJP getting 80-93 seats, Congress 90-103 and JD(S) 31-39

Reacting to India Today-Axis exit poll, Chief minister Siddaramaiah says, "I was expecting this. The exit poll by India Today is closer to truth. For 6 months now, I have been saying the same thing. I understand the pulse of the people, so I was confident that Congress will win majority and come to power."

He further added, "In north Karnataka, JDS doesn't have a single MLA. How can they get majority?"

He also said, "In many constituencies, BJP and JD(S) are hand-in-hand and have tacit understanding."

Some other exit polls also hint at hung Assembly: 

Chanakya exit poll	Vote share
BJP	120
Congress	73
JD(S)	26
Others	3

 

Digvijaya News Prediction	Vote share
BJP	103-107
Congress	76-80
JD(S)	35-37

CVoter Exit Poll	Vote share
BJP	103
Congress	93
JD(S)	25
Others	1

Times Now-VMR Exit Poll	Vote share
BJP	80-93
Congress	90-103
JD(S)	31-39
Others	2-4

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll	Vote share
BJP	79-92
Congress	106-118
JD(S)	22-30
Others	1-4

ABP-CSDS exit poll	Vote share
BJP	89-95
Congress	85-91
JD(S)	32-38

NewsX-CNX Exit Poll	Vote share
BJP	102-110
Congress	72-78
JD(S)	35-39
Others

NDTV exit poll	Vote share
BJP	98
Congress	88
JD(S)	33
Others	3

Republic Jan Ki Baat	Vote share
BJP	95-114
Congress	73-82
JD(S)	32-43

Track LIVE updates of Karnataka Assembly Election 2018

2. 70 per cent turn out in Karnataka assembly polls: The high-stakes Karnataka assembly elections saw a 70 per cent voter turnout today, the Election Commission said here. The last assembly election in 2013 had witnessed 71.4 per cent polling, it said. The polling figure is likely to go up as some voters were still queued up at the polling stations after 6 pm.

3. A roundup of today's voting in Karnataka: The Bharatiya Janata Party's Chief Ministerial face B S Yeddyurappa was among the first to vote at Shikaripura in Shivamogga district. He has claimed that the BJP will secure 140-150 seats and that he will invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to his swearing in.

Siddaramaiah ridiculed Yeddyurappa after voting on Saturday, saying the BJP leader was "mentally disturbed" and that the Congress was sure of bagging more than 120 seats.

Janata Dal-Secular chief and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, his wife Chennamma and second son H.D. Revanna cast their votes in their hometown Holenarsipura in Hassan district.

"We expect a possibility of forming the government as we have done well to get a majority," Deve Gowda told reporters.

4. Karnataka election 2018 result will be declared on May 15. In all, 2,654 candidates are in the fray, including 219 women. A total of 222 are from the Congress and BJP each, 201 from JD-S, 1,155 Independents and 800 from other national, regional and fringe parties. About 450 contestants are in the battle from Bengaluru.

5. Cong accuses PM to 'influence' Karnataka voters through Nepal temple visits: Modi today prayed at Nepal's iconic Muktinath temple that is regarded sacred by both Hindus and Buddhists, becoming the first world leader to offer prayers there. He also offered prayers at the Pashupatinath temple, located on the banks of the Bagmati river. The Pashupatinath temple is regarded as the most sacred and oldest temple of Shiva (Pashupati) in Nepal.

6.  Pink booths, cheat-free EVMs and other firsts: From all-women managed 'Pink Booths' to the use of third generation Electronic Voting Machines, the assembly elections in Karnataka are marked by several firsts. As the outcry about the alleged vulnerability of the EVMs to tampering grew louder, the Election Commission has come up with the 'M3 EVMs' that are tamper proof and stops when attempts are made to meddle with it.

On a pilot basis, the Election commission chose five assembly constituencies in Bengaluru-- Rajarajeshwari Nagar (polling in this constituency have been postponed), Shivajinagar, Shanthinagar, Gandhi Nagar and Rajaji Nagar in Bengaluru. The machine, according to sources in the office of the chief electoral officer, has features like display of battery status and digital certification. The machine can report about the malfunction on its own, they said.

In a women-oriented step, 450 "pink booths" called 'Sakhi' have been set up.

7. Re-polling ordered at a booth in Hebbal: The Election Commission has ordered re-polling in Karnataka's Hebbal assembly constituency's polling station Number 2 as the polling was stopped earlier in the day due to Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) failure.

In the morning, the voting was suspended here after voters complained that VVPAT receipt was different from the vote they cast on the EVM.

As per reports till now, 164 polling units, 157 control units and 470 VVPATs malfunctioned across the state.

8. BJP's Sriramulu performs 'gau puja' before casting his vote: Just before casting his vote, BJP leader B Sriramulu was seen performing 'gau puja' (cow worship). He is contesting against incumbent Chief Minister Siddaramaiah from Badami constituency. Badami, a tourist town in Bagalkot district in northern Karnataka is renowned for its cave temples.

8. Faulty VVPAT machine stalls voting in Hubli: A faulty Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) machine at booth number 108 has stalled voting here. The machine was replaced, and voting resumed at the booth.

9. BJP, Congress workers distribute cash for votes: As Karnataka voting is underway, BJP and Congress workers have allegedly been caught distributing cash for votes in south Bengaluru, reported India Today. 

Outside Nalini Raghunatha Rao degree college, BJP workers allegedly distributed Rs 500 while the Congress was seen handing out Rs 600, the English news channel added.

10. BJP in Karnataka election 2018: The BJP had ruled the state between 2008 and 2013, the only time it did so, but its tenure was marred by intra-party feuds and allegations of corruption. One of its three chief ministers and its current chief ministerial candidate B S Yeddyurappa was in jail over corruption charges. Though the BJP launched its campaign, calling it "mission 150 (seats)", Shah told a press conference on Thursday the party will win over 130 constituencies. Unlike in 2013, when the BJP split into factions with Yeddyurappa forming KJP and B Sriramulu of Ballari floating BSR Congress, they are all united this time.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi undertook an adrenaline-charged campaign for the BJP, while Congress president Rahul Gandhi helmed his party's electoral offensive.

Important BJP candidates to watch out for in Karnataka election 2018: BJP's B Sreeramulu, Janardhan Reddy's close aide and sitting lawmaker, who is fighting from Badami against Congress' Siddaramaiah, the current chief minister of the state and BJP's chief ministerial candidate and sitting lawmaker from Shikaripura constituency are among the top candidates for Karnataka Assembly Elections.

Other heavyweights from the BJP include - Jagadish Shettar, leader of Opposition and former chief minister from Hubli-Dharwad-Central, G Somashekara Reddy and G Karunakara Reddy, the famous Reddy brothers involved in illegal mining, from Bellary City and Harapanahalli respectively. Senior BJP leaders K S Eshwarappa (Shimoga) , S Suresh Kumar (Rajajinagar), R Ashoka (Padmanabanagar) are also to watch out for in Karnataka election 2018.

JD(S) in Karnataka Election: JD(S) state president H D Kumaraswamy has conceded it was a "battle for survival" for his party which has been out of power for a decade now.

Important JD (S) candidates to watch out for in Karnataka election 2018:

Among the heavyweights from JD (S) are - S Madhu Bangarappa, son of former CM S Bangarappa who is contesting from Sorab constituency. HD Kumaraswamy, party state president and former chief minister from Ramanagaram, H D Revanna, son of HD Devegowda, fighting from Holenarasipur, AH Vishwanath from Hunsur, Chikkanna from Heggadadevankote, GT Devegowda from Chamundeshwari and KS Rangappa from Chamaraja. Subramanyam Sharma, All India Mahila Empowerment Party (AIMEP) party leader and grandson of former presidents VV Giri and S Radhakrishnan is also among the list of heavyweight candidates for Karnataka election 2018.

Congress in Karnataka Election: No party in Karnataka has won a second successive term in office since 1985 when the Janata Dal under Ramakrishna Hegde had retained power. The Congress is confident of breaking the jinx, with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah saying the party will create history.

"I am often told history is against me as no sitting govt in Karnataka has been re-elected in a long time. But we are here to create history and not to obey it," Siddaramaiah tweeted.

The Congress' main challenger BJP has spared no effort to ensure that history is repeated. The Congress is also aiming at retaining the only large state it rules after Punjab.

Important Congress candidates to watch out for in Karnataka election 2018: 

From Congress, the list of heavyweights for Karnataka poll 2018 include Rahim Khan (Bidar), H K Patil (Gadag), R V Deshpande (Haliyal), five times lawmaker KB Koliwad from Ranebennur, Anil H Lad from Bellary City, Kagodu Thimmappa from Sagar, President of the KPCC - G Parameshwara from Koratagere, KR Ramesh Kumar from Srinivaspur, Krishna Byregowda contesting from Byatarayanapura and K J George from Sarvagnanagar.

Bengaluru Mayor R Sampath Raj from CV Raman Nagar, veteran Congressman R Roshan Baig from Shivajinagar, working president of KPCC Dinesh Gundu Rao from Gandhinagar, State Home Minister and six times lawmaker Ramalinga Reddy from BTM Layout, state minister of energy DK Shivakumar from Kanakapura and Yathindra Siddaramaiah, son of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, contesting from Varuna constituency, are some of the heavyweights from the Congress party for Karnataka polls 2018.

Chanakya exit poll	Vote share
BJP	120
Congress	73
JD(S)	26
Others	3

Chanakya exit poll	Vote share
BJP	120
Congress	73
JD(S)	26
Others	3