To return to power in 2019, Narendra Modi must pass through Karnataka

During an interaction with students on Teachers’ Day, when a student from Manipur asked how he could become the prime minister, Narendra Modi had said, “Start preparing for 2024. It also means till then I do not have any threat.”

Four years later, it seems as if Modi may have to re-examine his statement. Cracks have begun to appear in the perceived aura of invincibility of the Modi-led BJP. The main reasons behind this are the BJP’s electoral setbacks in the Chitrakoot assembly by-election in Madhya Pradesh in November last year, the fierce resistance it faced from a resurgent Congress in Gujarat in the following month and finally the huge margins by which it recently lost the by-elections in Rajasthan, UP (Gorakhpur, Phulpur) and Bihar.

Though it’s now clear that 2019 won’t be a cakewalk for the BJP, Modi and company still remain the favorites to win in 2019. Before understanding how the power equations of 2019 are shaping up, let’s go back to the 2014 victory of BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 205 seats out of its overall tally of 282 seats from the 12 northern and western states (of Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh). This still remains a make or break region for the BJP. It seems highly unlikely that it will be able to retain its 2014 tally. A resurgent Congress in Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and a possible SP-BSP-Congress alliance, growing anti-incumbency will mean that the BJP may suffer from a loss of 50-60 seats in the region.

So, how can the BJP make up for this large decline in the other zones? The BJP has already peaked in the North, West and has also made an impressive debut in the Northeast. So, the South is important for its 2019 Lok Sabha strategy. The five southern states – Andhra Pradesh (AP), Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala – and one Union Territory of Pondicherry together send 130 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Despite the Modi wave in 2014, the BJP won just 20 seats from the region, of which 17 are from Karnataka, two from AP and one from Tamil Nadu. Sources say that the BJP’s chief election strategist Amit Shah has identified 50-60 winnable seats in the Southern states. If Narendra Modi wants to be back in South Block in 2019, then the BJP has to make inroads in the South to offset its losses in the North and West.

Traditionally, the BJP has failed to make any inroads in the South because it’s largely seen as a North Indian party and its trump card of Hindutva doesn’t work in the region. It’s important to try and understand the prevalent political situation in the southern states and interpret what picture may emerge in 2019. Both the national parties are marginal players in the South and they will have to rely on the hegemonic regional outfits in various states. The political mood is fast changing due to a number of local and national issues such as the resentment against the fund allocations to the southern states by the 15th Finance Commission, the Cauvery water dispute, special category status (SCS) demand by Andhra, the political turmoil in Tamil Nadu and the upcoming Karnataka Assembly Elections.

Karnataka: Gateway to the South

Karnataka is the only state below the Vindhyas where the saffron party once had a full-fledged government on its own. The BJP has been traditionally strong in the coastal areas of the state which is the hotbed of Hindutva politics in the South and enjoys some support in urban areas as well. In his Mysuru rally, BJP chief Amit Shah declared recently, “Winning the elections here will open the door for the BJP to the southern part of the country.” A win in Karnataka will be a shot in the arm for the BJP’s southern ambitions, paving its way for gaining more seats in the South in 2019. A BJP win in the Assembly Elections next year may mean that the BJP can realistically set itself a target of winning at least 20 out of the 28 seats in the state in 2019.

However, at this moment it seems like Siddaramaiah, in spite of the anti-incumbency against him, holds the edge in the elections. The Congress is fighting the elections like a regional party and in a smart shift of strategy Siddaramaiah has relied heavily on ‘Kannadiga sub nationalism’ to counter BJP’s nationalism, by raising issues like local language, Kannada imposition, separate state flag etc. One of the leading reasons behind the BJP’s rise in Karnataka was because the dominant Lingayat community supported the BJP in the 90s. However, Siddaramaiah’s move to identify the Lingayats as a separate religion is a masterstroke that can erode the saffron part’s Lingayat voter base.

If the BJP manages to win Karnataka, it will gain momentum going into an election season which includes four assembly elections and the 2019 showdown. A win in Karnataka will help the BJP boost its standing and thus, it will stand a chance to stitch together a regional alliance of smaller regional parties in the South or it will at least ensure a dent in the Congress’s winning credentials and thus prevent any major regional outfit from joining any anti-BJP front headed by the Congress.

Tamil Nadu: An alliance in the making?

After the death of J. Jayalalithaa, the Dravidian state of Tamil Nadu has been in a constant state of flux and political turmoil. The current political landscape of the state seems like a political potpourri. With Kamal Hassan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam making its entry on the Dravidian political scene, the AIADMK led by EPS and OPS treading cautiously, Dinakaran making his own moves and launching AMMK and even Rajinikanth being ready to take the political plunge, the BJP will be hoping to cut deals with one of these entities to gain some seats in the state. The BJP on its own is absolutely irrelevant in the state. The Dravidian politics of the state is based on Tamil cultural nationalism and that explains why the BJP has found no takers in the state. The BJP in the past has piggybacked on the DMK and the AIADMK and has tried its best to reach out to both of them and stitch an alliance with them on several occasions in the past four years, but it has failed to do so.

It seems as if the BJP won’t be able to make inroads in the state or woo any of the two major Dravidian politics in the foreseeable future. The BJP’s best bet is to join hands with Rajinikanth and hope to win at least five seats in 2019.  The BJP may have committed political hara-kiri with its unsympathetic stand on the Cauvery dispute. The slogans of “Modi, go back” may not be easily forgotten and no Tamil Nadu party may ally with the BJP, which is largely seen as the villain on the Cauvery issue.

Kerala: Opening account

For decades, the BJP has failed to make any significant electoral inroads in Kerala despite the strong presence of the RSS in the state since 1942. The RSS is very powerful, especially in the northern parts and in Kasaragod. Christians and Muslims comprise almost 45% of the population. The Muslims are with the Indian Union Muslim League, the Christians with the Congress and the Communist Party has been patronised by the upper caste and lower caste Hindus. The BJP made notable gains in terms of its vote share in the 2016 assembly polls where it polled almost 15% of the votes. The BJP has come up with an ambitious ‘Mission 11’ plan in Kerala, under which  the party would concentrate on all 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state, with special attention to 11 segments from where the party polled over two lakh votes each in the 2016 Assembly Elections.

Given the composition of population, the BJP’s aim of making a mark in Kerala in 2019 seems difficult but not impossible. The BJP’s best bet is to try and consolidate the Hindu vote in the state and also woo a chunk of the Christian votes, which has traditionally supported the Congress. The BJP has used its new poster boy of Hindutva, Yogi Adityanath  to campaign in Kerala, which explains what its 2019 strategy will be. The BJP has formed an alliance with the Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena, a party which has some support from the backward Ezhava community.  It seems as if the BJP at best can hope to open its account in the state in 2019 polls. However, any form of direct or indirect understanding between the Congress and the Left will be a blessing in disguise for the BJP as it would occupy the space of the principal opposition party, thus helping it win some additional seats.

Battle for the Telugu states

The two regional parties Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) undoubtedly hold the edge in Andhra Pradesh while the two national parties – Congress and BJP – are almost irrelevant in the state. In a stunning reversal of fortunes, the BJP is most likely to draw a blank in the state in the state because of its divorce with the TDP. The BJP on several occasions has tried to reach out to the YSRCP and the PM even met Jaganmohan Reddy last year which many believe angered Chandrababu Naidu and ultimately lead to the TDP severing its ties with the BJP. The best case scenario for the BJP will be to ensure that none of the two parties allies with the Congress. The BJP can always hope for a post poll alliance with TDP if it falls short of the 272 mark in 2019. The biggest cause for concern for the saffron party is that the TDP, YSRCP have been so far able to paint it as the villain in the SCS saga.

Even Telangana isn’t likely to provide any cushion to the BJP in 2019. K. Chandrashekar Rao looks pretty much in control of Telangana and with Congress being the primary opposition party, it seems as if the BJP won’t be able to open its account in the state. Rao is now looking for national role by trying to form a non-Congress, non-BJP third front. It is surprising that the Telangana CM who had committed himself to working in Hyderabad till he achieved the goal of ‘Bangaru (Golden) Telangana is now trying to do a ‘Devegowda’ in 2019.

BJP’s formula for 2019

The math for 2019 as far as the BJP is concerned is quite simple. It has to gain in the East, Northeast and South to compensate the losses that it will suffer in the North and the West. The BJP can realistically hope to make only marginal gains in the eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal and at best can double its tally in the Northeast.

The BJP has made an astonishing electoral debut in the Northeast because of some smart strategies, alliances, backroom deals and defections. Congress’s loss has turned out to be BJP’s gain as the ex-Congressman and now BJP’s blue-eyed boy in the Northeast Himanta Biswa Sarma has helped the BJP expand in the region. The BJP and its allies are in power today in all northeastern states barring Mizoram. BJP chief Amit Shah has set a target of winning 20 out of the 25 seats in the region in 2019. The BJP can realistically hope to win at least 15 seats in the region and thus almost double it’s 2014 tally.

After the BJP’s history victory in Tripura, Amit Shah while addressing the media had said that the BJP’s golden period has not yet started and that it will begin only when it emerges victorious in West Bengal, Odisha and Kerala. The statement perhaps best explains the importance of the eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha for the BJP. The two seats together have 63 Lok Sabha seats.

Naveen Patnaik has been the CM of Odisha since 2000. Congress, which has long been the principal opposition party is steadily losing ground and conceding  to the BJP. The BJP has emerged as the second largest party in the recent by-polls and Panchayat polls in the state. Internal squabbles in the ruling BJD and a lethargic, anaemic Congress provide ample opportunities for the BJP to grow in the state. It won’t be a big surprise if the Congress draws a blank in Odisha in 2019 and the BJP wrests all the five seats from it.

Just like Odisha, in West Bengal, the BJP is dislodging the Congress and the Left and fast emerging as the main opposition to the ruling TMC. Mukul Roy, once number two in the TMC has joined the saffron party. The BJP seems to be aggressively pushing it’s Hindutva agenda in the state to consolidate the Hindu votes against the TMC. However, the TMC led by Mamta still enjoys a lot of support and the BJP can at best hope to win an additional three-five seats in 2019.

Thus, the BJP’s gains and claims of expansion in the Northeast and in the eastern states of Bengal and Odisha appear only symbolic and it can only pickup 15-20 additional seats in the region in 2019.

The BJP can gain only 20 odd seats in the eastern and Northeastern states so it will still have to perform better in the south to make-up for the deficit. It’s evident that Narendra Modi’s road to South Block in 2019 will pass through the Southern states. The BJP has emerged as an election winning colossus with an insatiable desire to expand and it has so far conquered the North, West and made an impressive debut in the northeast but South India will surely be a tough nut to crack.

Published in arrangement with The Wire