Why this phase is crucial for Bihar's alliances

With 50 constituencies going to polls on Wednesday, the third phase of elections to the Bihar Assembly is crucial for both the National Democratic Alliance and the mahagatbandhan (grand alliance). While development, employment and infra continue to be factors in these elections, it increasingly appears to be a face-off between the agda vs pichhada (forward castes vs backward castes). Half-way through the polls, the fight has become more personal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihari satraps Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad taking potshots at each other.

The first two phases, according to political observers, are said to have largely been favourable to the grand alliance; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi are, therefore, desperate to dent the traditional votebanks of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) — the other backward classes (OBCs) and the Dalits.

That the two regional parties had managed to rile the BJP by harping on Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat’s comment on reservation was evident when Modi raked up reservation on the last day of campaigning in an attempt to consolidate votebanks along communal lines. Modi accused Nitish and Lalu of plotting to reduce quotas for Dalits and backward castes by five per cent in order benefit “a particular community”.

This phase covers large swathes of urban and semi-urban areas spread across six districts — Patna, Hajipur in Vaishali, Arrah in Bhojpur — traditionally the stronghold of the upper castes and the BJP. Incidentally, the savarn vote is only 15 per cent in the entire state with Yadavs and Muslims comprising 13 and 17 per cent of the population, respectively. The EBCs, mahadalits, etc., account for 55 per cent.

Incidentally, Patna, Vaishali, Nalanda, Bhojpur, Saran and Buxar used to be RJD’s stronghold in the past. However, in the past 10 years, the JD(U) and the BJP have made inroads here. In the 2010 assembly polls, out of these 50 constituencies, 23 of them chose JD(U) representatives, while the BJP won on 19 seats and the RJD was reduced to eight seats. The popularity of the BJP soared in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the saffron party won half of the seats. Its alliance partner, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), came in second winning in 11 constituencies. The RJD and JD(U) were decimated and confined to nine and four assembly constituencies, respectively.

But the situation has undergone a change. There is no Modi wave. There is a palpable disappointment with his failure to deliver on poll promises. The NDA attempted to rake up the fear of Lalu’s jungle raj years. Some of the issues that figured prominently in the campaigning included the rising prices of dal and black money.

While Patna will be headed to polls, the voting pattern in rural belts of the district — where Yadavs hold sway as opposed to the urban areas — will be closely watched. BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha’s utterances against the party have added spice to the campaign. Leader of Opposition in the Assembly Nand Kishore Yadav — BJP’s Yadav face — is seeking re-election from Patna Sahib for the fifth time. He is taking on RJD’s Santosh Mehta.

Mokama and Digha constituencies have the highest number of candidates with criminal records. Anant Kumar Singh is contesting Mokama seat as an Independent from prison. This round will also decide the fate of Lalu’s sons — Tej Pratap and Tejaswi — contesting Yadav-dominated Mahua and Raghopur constituencies in Vaishali district.

LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan’s bastion Hajipur will also go to the polls and his party’s performance along with that of Jitin Ram Manjhi’s party will be critical for the NDA alliance.

CM Nitish Kumar’s native district Nalanda has been a stronghold of the JD(U). Declaring him as the CM candidate is working in JD(U)’s favour. The excessive focus on Lalu’s negatives by the BJP has unexpectedly profited Nitish a votary of good governance. The party has continuously blamed Nitish for his alliance with Lalu, implying that without the RJD chief he will be good leader. “With Nitish as CM, we are assured that we will be safe. He kept the upper castes in check when he was in an alliance with the BJP,” said Anil Kumhar from Bhojpur. Kumhar belongs to an extremely backward caste.