With a range of options, what type of Tori will take over PM Boris Johnson

When the Conservative Party changes leader, it often goes for a radical switch. As Margaret Thatcher’s “iron lady” sheen faded, the Tories turned to John Major, dubbed the “gray man” for his uninspiring leadership style. After self-proclaimed “quiet man” Iain Duncan Smith, slick PR professional David Cameron got the nod.
 

In 2019 straight-laced vicar’s daughter Theresa May — mocked for admitting that in her youth she sinned by running through a farmer’s wheat field — was succeeded by the chaotic but charming Boris Johnson.

Conservative MPs are now likely to have a range of options: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is seen as steadfast; former Health Secretary Sajid Javid talks up his principles; ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak weathered the Covid-19 pandemic — and recent fiscal tussles with the outgoing prime minister. 

Arch-Johnson loyalist Transport Secretary Grant Shapps is a good communicator, while Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, a Brexiter and free-market acolyte of Thatcher, polls well with Conservative members — the electorate that will crown the eventual winner. 

Outside the cabinet, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Jeremy Hunt all have ambitions. Mordaunt is a Navy reservist whose barrack-room humor appeals to a certain type of Tory — though her support for trans rights, seen as a cultural dividing line, might negate some of that. Tugendhat — who launched his bid on Friday — has built up a financial war chest and some heavyweight support, according to one of his backers, although a lack of ministerial experience may count against him.

The contest won’t officially start until party grandees announce a timetable on Monday, but Attorney-General Suella Braverman has also shown her hand, as a committed Brexiter who pledged on Thursday to stay true to Johnson’s 2019 Conservative manifesto. Serial rebel Tory MP Steve Baker, another key Brexit-backer, is “seriously thinking whether I should do it.” 

Neither is likely to win and are likely boosting their profiles. The real interest will be in which of the cabinet big beasts choose to bare their teeth. 

Wallace has made a virtue of his loyalty and kept a low public profile. He was physically at Johnson’s side as Conservatives voted on his leadership last month. On Wednesday, Wallace was far away from the so-called cabinet “delegation of doom” that filed in to tell Johnson his time was up. 

His solid management of the UK’s Ukraine policy won him admirers at home and in the US. That should help with an increasingly right-wing parliamentary caucus.

Brexit fever may have ebbed, but Truss’s decision to unilaterally override the Northern Ireland protocol will have done her no harm. Party members do love a bit of Brussels-baiting. Truss isn’t subtle — channeling classic Thatcher and calling for more defense spending is Tory red meat. Still, she got tough on Russian oligarchs over Ukraine and secured the release of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, held hostage in Iran. Critics say she’s vain, traveling with an official photographer and pointing to her frequent posting on Instagram.

Rishi Sunak’s expensive suits and flash accessories may position him as out of touch in a time of double-digit inflation. He shone during Covid, when his largesse kept families and businesses afloat, but recent tax rises may count against him in a party that hates them. Long-regarded as a favorite to replace Johnson, Sunak’s profile took a hit from “Partygate,” when he was fined for breaking the law. Questions linger over his wife’s tax affairs and his residency status. 

So if Sunak isn’t the safest pair of hands, how about Sajid Javid, a former banker and son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver? Javid was let down by a badly run campaign when he last ran for leader of the party. (He also had to run again Johnson.) Nevertheless, he jokes that people should hold on to old “Saj For Leader” badges.

His supporters say Javid is consistently the senior Tory with best approval ratings among the public. His name recognition pre-dates Sunak’s rise. Even so, he was a key player in Johnson’s downfall, and in Conservative circles there is a truism: anyone who wields the knife never wears the crown. However, this may not hold Javid back because he successfully judged the party’s mood by quitting at the right time. His resignation letter put integrity at its heart and his House of Commons statement was quietly devastating, even if he fluffed some of the strongest lines. His distance from Johnson could work in his favor. 

 

New Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi has a battle to prove he’s trustworthy. He briefly kept Johnson afloat by taking the Treasury job, before joining a delegation of ministers calling on his new boss to quit. 

The immaculately groomed former businessman shone as vaccines minister and has an interesting backstory. He was born in Iraq, moved to the UK as a refugee in the 1970s and founded the polling company YouGov. He’s a Tory success story. But he would be dogged by questions on whether he can deliver the tax cuts nearly every Tory is crying out for. 

The first phase of the contest takes place in Parliament, where Conservative MPs will whittle down the field to a final two by July 21. They will then go forward into the second phase: a head-to-head scramble for votes among party members.

 In 2019, then-party Chairman Brandon Lewis put membership at 180,000. Much has happened since then. Within six to eight weeks, those who stuck by the Tories during Johnson’s tumultuous premiership will have the chance to choose the UK’s next leader — again.