Bank of Baroda Q4 Preview: Analysts see low slippages, fall in GNPA

The state-owned bank is also anticipated to report over 70 per cent jump in net profit or profit after tax (PAT) on quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, as per analysts' estimates

Bank of Baroda is slated to announce its March quarter earnings for the financial year 2018-19 on Wednesday amid expectations of fewer slippages and lower gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio. The bank is also projected to report strong growth in net profit on a sequential basis.

The state-owned bank is anticipated to report over 70 per cent jump in net profit or profit after tax (PAT) on quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, as per analysts' estimates.

While analysts at Phillip Capital estimate PAT to be around Rs 813 crore, those at ICICI Securities project it around Rs 607 crore. The bank had reported a profit of Rs 471.2 crore in Q3FY19 and a loss of Rs 3,102.3 crore in the year-ago period.

The net interest income (NII) too could see a growth of 2-4 per cent, rising up to Rs 4,939 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 4,744 crore in Q3FY19.

NPAs may dip

Analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher believe that higher write-offs would help the bank to report a lower gross NPA ratio of around 10.24 per cent for the recently ended quarter, down 200 basis points (bps) from Q4FY18 and about 77 bps from the quarter ended December 2018.

“Moderation in slippages and improving recovery will keep GNPA lower at 10.4 per cent leading to lower credit cost of 49 bps as against 62 bps in Q3FY19,” ICICI Direct Securities said in an earnings preview note.

The net NPA (NNPA) ratio is also expected to drop by around 40 bps on a sequential basis to 3.9 per cent from 4.3 per cent. It was 5.5 per cent in the year-ago period.

It is being anticipated that the bank will report minutely lower slippages in this quarter led by modest recoveries and no major resolution taking place.  

Phillip Capital, for instance, estimates the slippages at Rs 3,600 crore, down 3.6 per cent, from Rs 3,733 crore in Q3FY19. It was Rs 12,569 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

Commentary after merger

Analysts await the management's commentary in wake of its merger with Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank in April 2019. The bank, which got merged under India’s first three-way bank merger, will reportedly rationalise 900 bank branches to improve efficiency.

At the bourses, the stock has lost over 7 per cent ever since the merger came into effect as against a rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex of over 1 per cent. Over the last one year, shares of BoB have fallen 13.4 per cent while the Sensex has rallied over 18 per cent.