External factors to decide trend

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Sensex crashed to a low of 12,822 during the week - down almost 1,000 points from its previous close. However, some bargain hunting in beaten-down financial and realty stocks helped the index cut losses towards the end of the week. The index finally ended with a loss of 348 points at 13,454. It has shed a whopping 22.8 per cent (3,981 points) in the last seven weeks.

Among the index stocks, ACC, Maruti, Grasim and Reliance Infrastructure dropped 13-17 per cent last week. Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Ambuja Cements, ICICI Bank, Reliance Communications, ITC and Mahindra & Mahindra shed 7-12 per cent each.

On the other hand, BHEL surged nearly 9 per cent. Jaiprakash Associates, ONGC, Satyam and L&T gained 5-7 per cent each.

Political concerns, inflation worries and possible action by the RBI would continue to affect the markets in the short term. The market sentiment will also be driven by the earnings season.

Technically, the Sensex may drift towards its yearly support of 12,100. However, if the index manages to sustain above the 12,750-12,800 range in the short-term, there may be a pull-back rally upto 13,900 and 15,200. The index is likely to find support around 13,050-12,930-12,800 and resistance at 13,855-13,980-14,100.

The Nifty moved in a range of 315 points during the week. From a high of 4,163, the index dropped to a low of 3,848 and finally settled with a loss of 121 points at 4,016. The index tumbled over 22 per cent (1,142 points) in the last seven weeks. The Nifty shall seek support in the broad range of 3,750-3,850, below which it is likely to fall to 3,500.