US stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 10-year Treasury rates posted a correlation coefficient of 0.8412 in the 60 trading days through June 16, showing stock prices and bond yields were the most linked in Bloomberg data going back to 1962. The last time the relationship was almost this strong during an economic expansion was at the beginning of the 2002 to 2007 bull market, when the benchmark gauge for US equities doubled.
Rising correlations show investors are ignoring relative values among industries and assets and reacting to day-to-day signals on the economy.
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